鄱阳湖生态经济区能源消费碳排放时空演变及驱动因素研究  

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Carbon Emission in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region

作　　者：杨云松 Yang Yunsong(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang Institute of Science&Technology,Nanchang 330013,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工学院经济与管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《绿色科技》2025年第1期236-240,247,共6页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：江西省社科基金“双碳目标下环鄱阳湖城市群碳排放差异与协同减排对策研究”(编号:22JL15D);江西省高校人文社科项目“碳平衡导向下环鄱阳湖城市群碳源/碳汇空间优化及低碳布局研究”(编号:JJ22111);江西省教育厅科技项目“鄱阳湖生态经济区碳源/碳汇时空演变机制及碳平衡预测”(编号:GJJ2202918)。

摘　　要：研究鄱阳湖生态经济区能源消费碳排放时空变化特征及其影响要素,可为当地政府开展碳减排实践工作提供参考。本文基于夜间灯光数据,结合空间统计、空间自相关、地理加权回归、GIS等方法,分析了鄱阳湖生态经济区能源消费碳排放时空演化特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:①2000-2021年,碳排放呈现不断上升趋势,区内各市碳排放呈现地理分异特征,碳排放量高值区集中在南昌市、九江市和上饶市;②碳排放呈正的全局空间自相关,并形成以南昌市和九江市为核心的高-高聚集;③碳排放量的所有驱动要素与碳排放量呈现正相关性,其影响程度最大的是人口规模,最小的是经济发展水平。The research on spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emission in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region can provide a reference for local governments to carry out carbon emission reduction practice.By the night light datasets,combining with spatial statistics,spatial auto-correlation,geographic weighted regression and GIS,spatial and temporal pattern characteristics and influencing factors are studied.The results were as follows:①from 2000 to 2021,the total amount of energy consumption carbon emission in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region grew continually,and energy consumption carbon emission of each city also showed an increasing trend.The carbon emission presented the geographical differentiation characteristics and the high point of carbon emission was Nanchang,Jiujiang and Shangrao;②the carbon emission of the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region showed a significant positive spatial auto-correlation,and formed a high-high aggregation in Nanchang and Jiujiang,and Nanchang has the largest carbon emission intensity;③the four factors that affect the carbon emission of energy consumption in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region positively correlated with the carbon emission.Population size has the biggest impact,and the level of economic development has the least impact.

关 键 词：碳排放 DMSP/OLS NPP/VIIRS 时空格局 驱动因素 鄱阳湖生态经济区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]