江苏省启东市1972—2021年乳腺癌发病流行特征  

Epidemiological characteristics of incidence rate for breast cancer in Qidong City,1972-2021

作　　者：陈永胜 陈珊珊 王军 朱健[1] Chen Yongsheng;Chen Shanshan;Wang Jun;Zhu Jian(Department of Etiology,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,the Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China;Department of Healthcare-associated Infection Management,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,the Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所、南通大学附属启东医院病因室,启东226200 [2]启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所、南通大学附属启东医院院感科,启东226200

出　　处：《中华肿瘤杂志》2025年第2期129-135,共7页Chinese Journal of Oncology

基　　金：南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题(MSZ2022101,MS2023121);南通大学校级科研基金临床医学专项资助项目(2024JY050)。

摘　　要：目的探讨江苏省启东市1972—2021年乳腺癌发病流行特征及变化趋势,为制定乳腺癌的防控措施提供依据。方法根据启东市1972—2021年乳腺癌发病登记数据和历年人口资料,计算粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标率)、世界人口标化发病率(世标率)、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率和累积风险。应用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0统计软件计算乳腺癌粗发病率、中标率、世标率的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对乳腺癌患者发病趋势变化的影响。结果1972—2021年启东市乳腺癌发病6929例,占全部恶性肿瘤发病数的4.70%,粗发病率为12.35/10万,中标率为6.63/10万,世标率为8.89/10万,35~64岁截缩率为21.90/10万,0~74岁累积发病率为0.96%,0~74岁累积风险为0.96%。男性发病98例,粗发病率为0.35/10万,中标率为0.17/10万,世标率0.25/10万;女性发病6831例,粗发病率为24.02/10万,中标率为12.86/10万,世标率17.13/10万。1972—2021年启东市女性乳腺癌世标率的AAPC为3.45%(95%CI:2.90%~4.01%),发病率的上升趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。1972—2021年启东市25~34岁组、35~44岁组、45~54岁组、55~64岁组、65~74岁组和75+岁组女性乳腺癌粗发病率的AAPC分别为2.78%(95%CI:0.88%~4.72%)、2.20%(95%CI:0.83%~3.60%)、3.81%(95%CI:2.45%~5.19%)、4.48%(95%CI:3.12%~5.85%)、3.79%(95%CI:2.19%~5.43%)和2.87%(95%CI:1.14%~4.63%),均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示,乳腺癌的发病风险随年龄的增长而升高,越晚出生的人发病风险越大(均P<0.05)。结论启东市乳腺癌的发病率呈上升趋势,自21世纪初起发病率的上升趋势尤为显著,卫生行政部门应制定相应的防控措施,以降低启东市乳腺癌负担。Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence in Qidong City between 1972 and 2021,and provide guidelines for preventive and control measures and strategies.Methods The cancer registry data were collected and breast cancer incidences during 1972 and 2021 in Qidong by sex,age,and time were analyzed.Crude incidence rate(CR),China age-standardized rate(ASRC),world age-standardized rate(ASRW),annual percentage change(APC),and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated by Joinpoint software.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the influence of age,period,and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of breast cancer.Results From 1972 to 2021,there were 6929 patients with breast cancer in Qidong,accounting for 4.70%of all new cancer cases,with a CR of 12.35/105,a ASRC of 6.63/105,and a ASRW of 8.89/105.The truncated incidence rate among people aged 35-64 years was 21.90/105.The cumulative incidence rate of the ages between 0 and 74 years was 0.96%.The cumulative risk was 0.96%.There were 98 male patients,whose CR,ASRC,and ASRW were 0.35/105,0.17/105,and 0.25/105,respectively.The number of female patients was 6831,and the CR,ASRC,and ASRW were 24.02/105,12.86/105,and 17.13/105,respectively.The AAPC of ASRW of female breast cancer was 3.45%(95%CI:2.90%-4.01%).The increasing trend of the incidence rate was statistically significant(P<0.05).The AAPCs of females aged 25-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,65-74,and≥75 years were 2.78%(95%CI:0.88%-4.72%),2.20%(95%CI:0.83%-3.60%),3.81%(95%CI:2.45%-5.19%),4.48%(95%CI:3.12%-5.85%),3.79%(95%CI:2.19%-5.43%),and 2.87%(95%CI:1.14%-4.63%).The increasing trends of the incidence rates in all age groups were statistically significant(P<0.05).The age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of breast cancer increased with age,and people born later were faced with a higher risk of the disease(P<0.05).Conclusion The incidence of breast cancer presented a rising trend in the past fifty years in Qidong.The increasing trend of the inci

关 键 词：乳腺肿瘤 发病率 流行特征 启东 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]