长株潭绿心区碳汇能力时空格局及多情景预测  

Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario prediction of carbon sequestration capacity in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Green Heart Area

作　　者：刘贤赵[1] 罗政英 王一笛 LIU Xianzhao;LUO Zhengying;WANG Yidi(School of Earth Science and Spatial Information Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学地球科学与空间信息工程学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2025年第2期559-568,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：湖南省自然资源厅重点项目(2022-05);湖南省教育厅重点项目(23A0353)资助。

摘　　要：长株潭绿心区担负着为城市发展提供公共生态服务的功能,是重要的生态屏障。本研究基于多源数据采用FLUS-InVEST模型探讨了2010-2020年长株潭绿心区土地利用、碳储量和碳汇能力的时空格局,并预测了2030和2060年不同情景下碳储量和碳汇的动态特征。结果表明:2010-2020年间,绿心区土地利用格局发生显著变迁。2010-2015年间,土地利用表现为林地、耕地和草地面积萎缩,建设用地、湿地和水域扩张,面积减少和增加最多的地类分别是林地(流失36.25 km^(2))和建设用地(增加53.05 km^(2))。2015-2020年间,土地利用减少较多的地类是建设用地(5.94 km^(2))、草地(6.53 km^(2))和湿地(4.62 km^(2)),增加较多的地类是耕地(12.94 km^(2))、林地(3.07 km^(2))和水域(1.08 km^(2)),耕地和林地在此期间均处于净流入状态。2010-2020年,绿心区的碳源区呈减少趋势,从2010-2015年间的259.44 km^(2)减少至2015-2020年间的233.32 km^(2);碳平衡区和碳汇区呈增加趋势,分别从2010-2015年间的185.71、76.06 km^(2)增加到2015-2020年间的204.56和89.79 km^(2);碳汇能力整体呈东西部强、中部弱的空间格局。碳汇能力的这种时空格局与绿心区碳储量的变化密切相关。2030、2060年绿心区的碳储量和碳汇能力随S1情景(自然发展)-S2情景(耕地保护)-S3情景(生态保护)呈上升趋势,S3情景是最优发展情景。上述情景下碳平衡区分布最广,碳汇区主要分布在绿心区的东部和湘江沿线,碳源区则集中在湘江沿岸以东的建设用地。强化建设用地管控和严格执行生态保护条例是提升绿心区碳汇能力的关键。As an important ecological barrier, the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Green Heart Area is responsible for providing public ecological services for urban development. We used the FLUS-InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of land use, carbon storage, and carbon sink capacity in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Green Heart Area from 2010 to 2020 based on multi-source data, and predicted carbon storage and carbon sequestration under different scenarios in 2030 and 2060. The results showed that land use pattern in the Green Heart Area had undergone significant changes during the study period. From 2010 to 2015, the area of forest, cultivated land, and grassland displayed a decrease, while the area of construction land, wetland, and water expanded. The land types with the largest decrease and increase in area were forest(loss of 36.25 km^(2)) and construction land(increase of 53.05 km^(2)), respectively. During 2015-2020, the land use decreased significantly in the following order: construction land(5.94 km^(2)), grassland(6.53 km^(2)), and wetland(4.62 km^(2)). The land use increased significantly in the following order: cultivated land(12.94 km^(2)), forest(3.07 km^(2)), and water(1.08 km^(2)). Both cultivated land and forest were at a net inflow state during this period. The carbon source areas in the Green Heart Area showed a downtrend from 2010 to 2020, decreasing from 259.44 km^(2) in 2010-2015 to 233.32 km^(2) in 2015-2020. The carbon balance and sink areas represented an increasing trend, increasing from 185.71 and 76.06 km^(2) in 2010-2015 to 204.56 and 89.79 km^(2) in 2015-2020, respectively. The overall carbon sequestration capacity exhibited a spatial pattern of firm in the east and west, weak in the central region, which was closely related to the changes in carbon storage in the Green Heart Area. In 2030 and 2060, the carbon storage and sink capacity of the Green Heart Area demonstrated an increasing trend under the S1 scenario(natural development), S2 scenario(farmland protection), and S3 scenari

关 键 词：长株潭绿心区 碳汇能力 FLUS-InVEST模型 多情景预测 

分 类 号：F30[经济管理—产业经济]