中国秸秆利用效率测度与时空演化  

Measurement and Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Straw Utilisation Efficiency in China

作　　者：李双艳[1] 章雅冲 章晓彤 LI Shuangyan;ZHANG Yachong;ZHANG Xiaotong(School of logistics,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha Hunan,410004,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学物流学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第5期43-57,共15页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BGL114)。

摘　　要：对我国不同地区秸秆回收利用情况进行准确测度有利于提供科学的回收利用策略。综合数据包络分析DEA和随机前沿分析SFA的三阶段USSBM模型测算2017—2021中国30个省份的秸秆利用效率。模型通过区分技术效率和随机误差,剔除环境因素和统计噪声。在此基础上,利用核密度估计、空间自相关分析、Dagum基尼系数对我国秸秆利用水平进行时空演化分析。结果表明:剔除农业财政支出、县乡村道路密度和高校科研人数因素后,第三阶段的秸秆利用效率相比于第一阶段有了明显提高,表明环境因素影响了秸秆利用效率,但影响作用逐渐减小;时间动态演进中,我国省域秸秆利用效率区域分化明显减弱,核密度曲线不断收窄,由2017年2.5个单位差缩小到2021年1个单位差;空间动态演进上,莫兰指数由2017年0.1940增长至2021年0.2034,Dagum基尼系数由期初0.126下降至0.085,说明各省秸秆利用效率差异逐年缩小,秸秆利用水平总体呈现正向空间聚集,向着均衡发展方向发展。根据研究结果建议:完善乡村道路建设;扩展秸秆利用方式;有序引导秸秆利用市场化运作;加强区域间秸秆利用交流与协作。Reasonable and effective straw utilisation is important for promoting green rural development,resource conservation and technological innovation in recycling.However,because of the different resources and inputs in each region,the efficiency of straw utilisation varies.Accurate measurement of straw recycling in different regions of China is conducive to providing scientific recycling strategies.In this paper,a three-stage USSBM model integrating data envelopment analysis DEA and stochastic frontier analysis SFA is used to measure the straw utilisation efficiency of 30 provinces in China from 2017 to 2021.The model removes environmental factors and statistical noise by distinguishing technical efficiency and random errors.On this basis,kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and Dagum’s Gini coefficient were used to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of straw utilization level in China.The results show that:1)After removing the factors of agricultural financial expenditure,county and rural road density,and the number of university researchers,the straw utilisation efficiency in the third stage is significantly improved compared with that in the first stage,which indicates that the environmental factors affect the straw utilisation efficiency,but the influence is gradually reduced.2)On the time dynamic evolution,the regional differentiation of China’s provincial straw utilisation efficiency is obviously weakened,and the kernel density curve keeps narrowing,from 2.5 unit difference in 2017 to 1 unit difference in 2021.3)On the spatial dynamic evolution,the Moran index grows from 0.1940 in 2017 to 0.2034 in 2021,and the Dagum Gini coefficient decreases from 0.126 at the beginning of the period to 0.085,indicating that the difference in the efficiency of straw utilisation in each province narrows year by year,and the level of straw utilisation in general shows a positive spatial spatial aggregation towards the direction of balanced development.According to the analysis,it is suggested that:1)

关 键 词：秸秆利用 三阶段USSBM—DEA模型 时空演化 核密度估计 莫兰指数 Dagum基尼系数 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] S3726.5[农业科学—农产品加工] X71[农业科学—农艺学]