绿色税制与碳税联动的效用模拟研究--基于灰色关联分析及CGE模型  

A Study on the Utility Simulation of the Synergy between Green Tax System and Carbon Tax:Based on Grey Relational Analysis and CGE Model

作　　者：陈淼 林正 CHEN Miao;LIN Zheng(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou Guangdong 510320,China;College of Business and Economics,Australian National University,Canberra,Australia)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州510320 [2]澳大利亚国立大学商业与经济学院,澳大利亚堪培拉

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第3期13-23,74,共12页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“生命周期视角下经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的机制、效应与对策研究”(21BJ105);广东省哲学社会科学规划2023年度学科共建项目“数字经济背景下粤港澳大湾区参与国际数字税竞合治理的经验研究”(GD23XYJ09);2023年广东省自然科学基金项目“粤港澳大湾区数字经济融合影响税收遵从行为微观机制的仿真模拟研究”(2023A1515012398)。

摘　　要：论文首先通过2015—2020年我国碳排放量与绿色税制税收收入数据的灰色关联分析发现,现行环境保护税、消费税、车辆购置税的减排效用较好,而资源税则有待提高,但各税种均存在不同程度的缺陷。然后,基于2020年投入产出表绘制出相应的社会核算矩阵,并构建出加入碳税和碳排放模块的可计算一般均衡模型,研究碳税开征对我国经济的影响。结果表明:居民部门受到的冲击大于企业部门;重工业受到的冲击远大于其他行业,交通运输业、建筑业、服务业均受到不同程度的冲击,农业和轻工业受到的影响较小;化石能源方面,煤炭受到巨大冲击,石油也受到一定程度冲击,而天然气则受到轻微的正向影响。总体而言,现行绿色税制已然发挥了一定的碳减排效用,但仍存在许多待完善的问题;而碳税实施则应从税制内部融合角度,一方面弥补现行绿色税制的缺陷,另一方面依靠其他税种的税收优惠等政策组合来减轻碳税对经济的负向冲击。The empirical research on the grey relation between Chinese carbon emission and green tax revenue shows that:environmental protection tax,consumption tax,vehicle purchase tax has done better in the carbon emission reduction,while the resource tax needs to be improved.But each tax has different degree of defects.At the same time,the empirical research on the prediction of the impact of the carbon tax shows that:the impact on resident income would be greater than that on enterprise;The impact on heavy industry is much greater than that on other industries,transportation,construction and service industries are affected to varying degrees,and agriculture and light industry are less affected.In terms of fossil energy,coal has been greatly impacted,while oil has also been impacted to a certain extent,natural gas has a slight positive impact.In general,the current green tax system has played a certain role in carbon emission reduction,but there are still many flaw should be improved.And the carbon tax could be established in the perspective of internal integration of tax system.It could supply a gap of the current green tax system while the negative impact of carbon tax could be alleviated by tax incentives of other taxes conversely.

关 键 词：绿色税制 碳税 可计算一般均衡模型(CGE) 灰色关联分析 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]