基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析  

Assessment and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage in Dawen River basin based on land-use change

作　　者：贾艳艳[1] 张芳源 刘新龙 Jia Yanyan;Zhang Fangyuan;Liu Xinlong(Forestry College,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian,Shandong 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学林学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2025年第1期254-263,共10页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目“基于生态系统服务的流域生态安全格局构建及演变研究:以黄河下游大汶河流域为例”(ZR2021QD124);国家自然科学基金项目(32301658)。

摘　　要：[目的]探明大汶河流域碳储量对土地利用变化的响应及其脆弱性,为促进流域绿色可持续发展和土地利用优化管控提供科学参考。[方法]基于土地利用数据,运用InVEST模型评估2000-2020年大汶河流域碳储量对土地利用转移的响应,并采用潜在影响指数(PI)评估流域生态系统碳储量服务的脆弱性。[结果](1)2000-2020年,研究区用地结构发生明显变化,主要表现为耕地大量减少(316.44 km^(2)),建设用地急剧增加(523.98 km^(2)),耕地转变为建设用地是主要的土地转移类型。(2)2000-2020年,研究区碳储量减少1.09×10^(7) t,其中耕地转变为建设用地是碳储量减少的主导因素;碳储量空间分布呈“整体上北高南低、局部区域显著高或显著低”的空间格局。(3)2000-2020年,研究区土地利用强度指数增加8.12,前10 a和后10 a的潜在影响指数分别为-1.33和-1.42,流域生态系统碳储量服务脆弱性逐渐增强。[结论]大汶河流域耕地、草地和林地的减少和建设用地的扩张对该流域碳储量及其脆弱性影响显著,未来应将碳储量作为土地利用规划的重要参考因素,以实现碳储量功能最优权衡。[Objective]The response and vulnerability of carbon storage to land-use change in the Dawen River basin were analyzed in order to provide a reference for promoting the green and sustainable development of the basin and the land-use optimization management and control.[Methods]Based on land use data,the InVEST model was used to study the impact of land-use change on carbon storage evolution in the Dawen River basin from 2000 to 2020,and the potential impact index(PI)was used to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage.[Results]①During 2000-2020,the land-use structure of the study area changed significantly,with a sharp decline in cultivated land(316.44 km^(2))and a sharp increase in construction land(523.98 km^(2)).The conversion of cultivated land into construction land was the primary type of land transfer.②During 2000-2020,the carbon storage decreased by 1.09×10^(7) t,and the transfer of cultivated land to construction land was the leading factor in the decrease.The spatial distribution characteristics of basin carbon storage were“overall higher in the north and lower in the south,and significantly higher or significantly lower in local areas.”③During 2000-2020,the land use degree index increased by 8.12.The PI for the first and last 10 years was-1.33 and-1.42,respectively,indicating that the vulnerability of carbon storage services increased.[Conclusion]The reduction in cultivated land,grassland and forest land,and the expansion of construction land in the Dawen River basin have significant effects on carbon storage and its vulnerability.In future,carbon storage should be considered as an important reference factor in land-use planning to achieve an optimal balance of carbon storage functions.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 脆弱性 大汶河流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]