融合多源数据研究积石山地震灾害及人口伤亡时空演化  

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Disaster and Population Casualties in Jishishan Earthquake by Fusing Multi-source Data

作　　者：李伟 杜锦辰 张超[4] 颉旭康 张超越 刘东 刘美琳 张丽琼 杨建华 闫浩文 LI Wei;DU Jinchen;ZHANG Chao;XIE Xukang;ZHANG Chaoyue;LIU Dong;LIU Meilin;ZHANG Liqiong;YANG Jianhua;YAN Haowen(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;National Engineering Research Center of Geospatial Information Technology,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying&Mapping,Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China;The First Monitoring and Application Center,Tianjin 300180,China;Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China;Surveying and Mapping Engineering Institute of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730050,China;Gansu Earthquake Agency,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou Urban Construction Design&Research Institute Co.Ltd,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心,甘肃兰州730070 [3]甘肃省测绘科学与技术重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [4]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180 [5]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [6]甘肃省测绘工程院,甘肃兰州730050 [7]甘肃省地震局,甘肃兰州730000 [8]兰州市城市建设设计研究院有限公司,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2025年第2期271-283,共13页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41930101);中国博士后科学基金(2019M660091XB);甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA857,23JRRG0015,21JR7RA317);甘肃省高等学校青年博士支持项目;国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心开放基金(E01Z790201/2021kf07);兰州市人才创新创业资助项目(2022-RC-73);兰州交通大学实验教学改革项目(2024SYJGZD01);甘肃省“青年科技人才托举工程”项目(李伟);中国地震局第一监测中心主任基金重点资助项目(FMC202302);武汉引力与固体潮国家野外科学观测研究站开放基金(WHYWZ202403);甘肃省科技计划(重点研发计划)(24YFFA054);甘肃省教育厅青年博士支持(2024QB-046);兰州交通大学本科教学改革项目(JGY202416);兰州交通大学实验教学改革项目(重点项目)(2024002)。

摘　　要：2023-12-18甘肃积石山县发生Ms 6.2地震,这是继2022年四川泸定Ms 6.8地震后在青藏高原东缘-东北缘地区发生的又一次强震事件。为研究此次地震灾害信息,利用Sentinel-1卫星升、降轨雷达影像确定同震形变场,结果表明,本次地震具有逆冲特性,为逆冲型地震,其中升、降轨同震形变场沿视线向形变都以抬升为主,分别为7.51 cm和7.91 cm;余震精定位结果显示,本次地震可能发生在一个西北或东南走向的发震断层;同时,分析余震精定位和近场测站时序信号,地震台站(N0028)加速度表明地震造成了持续性的破坏;全球导航卫星系统测站(LXJS)时序指出,地震在北和东方向上分别产生了1.986 cm和1.377 cm的永久位移;银川、大武以及固原连续重力观测台站发现本次地震对积石山区域的断裂活动引起了显著的地表同震重力变化。为确定此次震灾人口伤亡情况,探究此次震灾的“同震重灾”特征,融合多源数据构建震灾人口伤亡时空演化模型,将积石山震例参数作为模型的输入因子,预测得到主震死亡149人,准确率为98.45%。通过余震时序预测余震死亡3人,共计死亡152人,与实报151人相差1人,表明该模型能很好地进行人口伤亡预测。开展山区复杂环境下的积石山地震灾区灾害及人口伤亡时空演化研究,既能为灾后救援和灾后重建提供科学的指导和支持,又能为今后同类型灾害防范和监灾减灾工作提供宝贵的参考信息。Objectives:On December 18,2023,an Ms 6.2 earthquake occured in Jishishan County,Gansu Province,China.The purpose of this study was to construct a spatiotemporal evolution model of population casualties in Jishishan by integrating multi-source data,and to estimate the casualties in Jishishan area in the complex environment of Jishishan by combining the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of Jishi-shan.Methods:This study developed a spatiotemporal model for predicting population casualties in earthquake disasters using multi-source data.By integrating the coseismic deformation field obtained from Sentinel-1 satellite's ascending and descending radar images with time series records from various nearfield stations(N0028,LXJS,Yinchuan,Dawu,and Guyuan)as well as accurate positioning results of aftershocks,we were able to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the Jishishan area and predict population casualties resulting from the earthquake.Results:The results show that the earthquake has the characteristics of thrusting.The deformation of the ascending and descending coseismic deformation fields along the line of sight is mainly uplift,which is 7.51 cm and 7.91 cm respectively.The precise location of aftershocks shows that the earthquake may have occurred on an NW or SE striking fault.At the same time,after analyzing the precise location of the aftershock and the time series signal of the near-field station,the acceleration of the seismic station(N0028)indicates that the earthquake has caused sustained damage.The time series of global navigation satellite system station(LXJS)indicates that the permanent displacement of 1.986 cm and 1.377 cm in the north and east directions is produced by the earthquake.The Yinchuan,Dawu and Guyuan stations have found that the fault activity in the Jishishan region caused significant coseismic gravity variation.To determine the casualties of the earthquake disaster and explore the characteristics of the“coseismic severe disaster”.The spatiotemporal evolu

关 键 词：积石山地震 震灾人口伤亡 时空演化 多源数据 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]