乡村旅游经营户对不确定性的适应性研究——以新冠疫情冲击下浙江省顾渚村为例  

ADAPTATION OF RURAL TOURISM OPERATORS TO UNCERTAINTIES:A CASE STUDY OF GUZHU VILLAGE IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE UNDER THE SHOCK OF COVID-19

作　　者：余书涵 房艳刚 孙望涛[3] 刘建志 杨阳 YU Shu-han;FANG Yan-gang;SUN Wang-tao;LIU Jian-zhi;YANG Yang(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains,Ministry of Education,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Institute of Automation,Chinese Academic of Science.Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春130024 [2]东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室,长春130024 [3]中国科学院自动化研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《人文地理》2024年第6期142-151,共10页Human Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071223)。

摘　　要：适应性研究是应对各种不确定性因素的冲击,实现旅游业可持续发展的科学基础。本文构建新的适应性分析框架,并结合可持续生计理论与BP神经网络方法,以顾渚村为案例地进行了系统的适应性研究。研究表明:(1)Covid-19疫情发生后,乡村旅游经营户出现明显的兼业化趋势,主要分化为旅游升级型、电商经营型、务工主导型、维持生计型等四种适应类型。(2)乡村旅游经营户适应Covid-19冲击的关键因素是家庭存款、户籍所在地、户主学历、旅游培训次数、电商培训、户主年龄、劳动力数量、政策知晓度、政府帮助度、宅基地面积等。(3)外源的Covid-19疫情和政策治理以及内源的地方特性、旅游经营户的理性选择及尺度互馈作用,是顾渚村适应演化的主要机制。最后,文章结合不同旅游经营户的适应演变路径,探讨了相关政策建议。Adaptability research is the scientific basis to deal with the impact of uncertainties and realize the sustainable development of tourism.This paper constructs a new adaptive analysis framework,combines the theory of sustainable livelihood and BP neural network method,and conducts a systematic adaptive study of Guzhu Village.The results are obtained as follows:1)After the outbreak of Covid-19,rural tourism operators showed a significant trend of part-time employment,which mainly divided into four adaptation types:tourism promotion type,e-commerce type,worker-oriented type and subsistence type.2)Household saving,place of domicile,human capital,homestead area and other factors are key factors affecting the adaptation outcomes of operators.3)Exogenous factors such as Covid-19 epidemic and policy governance,as well as endogenous factors such as local characteristics,rational choice of tourism operators and scale interaction,are the main mechanisms of adaptation and evolution in Guzhu Village.Finally,the paper discusses corresponding policy suggestions based on the adaptative evolutionary path of different tourism operators.

关 键 词：不确定性 适应性 乡村旅游经营户 Covid-19 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]