基于土壤水分数据同化的降雨型滑坡预警  

Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Landslides through Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

作　　者：蔡雨菲 邵伟 马燮铫 董建志 张永根 倪钧钧 杨宗佶[5] CAI Yufei;SHAO Wei;MA Xieyao;DONG Jianzhi;ZHANG Yonggen;NI Junjun;YANG Zongji(Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Hydrological and Meteorological Disaster Mechanism and Early Warning,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]天津大学地球系统科学学院,天津300072 [4]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京211189 [5]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《水文》2025年第1期53-60,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42471032);青海省科技厅基础研究项目(2023-ZJ-705);中国科学院成都山地所自主部署创新团队项目(IMHE-CXTD—01);南京信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(XJDC202410300658)。

摘　　要：在土壤水分数据同化及滑坡预警中,土壤水力参数的反演显著影响模拟结果的准确性。将窗口粒子滤波(PBS)数据同化方法与基于Rosetta传递函数的土壤水力参数初始化方法(Rosetta方法)相结合,并通过虚拟算例和实际案例评估PBS-Rosetta在提高参数反演精度及滑坡水文模拟准确性方面的作用。结果表明,PBS-Rosetta在虚拟算例中能够获得准确的后验参数,提升滑坡水文模拟的准确性;在四川省都江堰银洞子沟滑坡堆积体的应用中,PBS-Rosetta成功预警了2018年6月26日发生的泥石流灾害。鉴于PBS-Rosetta在提高参数反演及滑坡水文模拟精度方面的显著作用,建议将其推广应用于降雨型滑坡预警领域。When assimilating soil moisture data for the early warning of rainfall-induced landslides,the accuracy of the modeling results is highly dependent on the initialization of soil hydraulic parameters.This study integrated the Particle Batch Smoother(PBS)data assimilation method with soil hydraulic parameter initialization using the Rosetta pedotransfer function(Rosetta method).and evaluated the accuracy of combined PBS-Rosetta approach through synthetic numerical examples and real-case applications.The results demonstrate that PBS-Rosetta can obtain accurate posterior parameters and improve the hydrological simulation of land-slide.In the application to the Yindongzi Gully landslide case in Dujiangyan,Sichuan Province,PBS-Rosetta successfully provided an accurate early warning for the debris flow disaster that occurred on June 26,2018.Given its significant improvements in pa-rameter estimation and hydrological modeling,PBS-Rosetta is recommended as a robust tool for early-warning of rainfall-induced landslides.

关 键 词：降雨型滑坡 土壤水力参数 土壤传递函数 数据同化 滑坡灾害预警 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] P345[水利工程—水文学及水资源]