中国碳交易试点政策对降碳减污协同的影响评价  

Evaluation of the impact of China’s carbon trading pilot policy on carbon reduction and pollution reduction synergy

作　　者：李峰 严雨彤 庞军[2] 卢治霖 LI Feng;YAN Yu-Tong;PANG Jun;LU Zhi-Lin(Power Grid Planning Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510220,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Energy Development Research Institute,China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510670,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广州510220 [2]中国人民大学生态环境学院,北京100872 [3]南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司,广州510670

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2025年第1期102-115,共14页Climate Change Research

基　　金：南方电网公司科技项目(GDKJXM20222448)。

摘　　要：当今中国正面临应对气候变化问题与建设美丽中国的双重挑战,减污降碳协同增效成为了必然的选择。文中以中国最具代表性的温室气体控制政策之一——碳排放权交易制度为例,主要运用中国267个地级市2007—2017年的面板数据集进行实证研究,将碳排放权交易试点作为准自然实验,构建双重差分与固定效应的混合模型,分析碳市场试点的减污与降碳效果。研究结果表明,碳市场政策在有效减少了试点地区碳排放量与碳强度的同时也减少了这些地区工业SO_(2)的排放量与PM_(2.5)浓度,但对工业废水与工业烟粉尘排放没有显著的影响。在惩罚机制更严格、财政依存度更高的地区,该政策的减污降碳协同效果更显著。从市场活跃度的角度来看,碳交易量、碳均价、有效交易天数均对减污降碳没有影响。China is currently facing the dual challenge of addressing climate change and achieving the goal of building a Beautiful China.Synergizing pollution reduction and carbon reduction has become an inevitable choice.This study focused on one of the most representative greenhouse gas control policies:the Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme.Based on panel data from 267 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2017,the carbon emissions trading pilot was regarded as a quasi-natural experiment.A mixed model with a combination of difference-in-differences method and fixed effects was constructed to analyze the effects of the carbon market pilot on carbon emissions reduction and pollution control.The results indicate that the carbon market polit has effectively reduced carbon emissions and decreased carbon intensity in the pilot areas,while also reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions and PM_(2.5) concentrations.However,it does not have a significant impact on industrial wastewater and industrial particulate matter emissions.In regions with stricter penalty mechanisms and higher fiscal dependence,the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction is more significant.From the perspective of market mechanisms,trading volume,carbon price,and trading days do not have an impact on pollution and carbon reduction.

关 键 词：碳市场 减污降碳 双重差分(DID) 协同治理 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X321[经济管理—金融学] F832.5