发电结构对高铁运行阶段碳排放因子的影响  

Influence of power generation structure on carbon emission factor of high-speed railway in operation period

作　　者：童瑞咏 魏润斌 吴金燕 毛保华[1,4] 田佩宁 TONG Rui-Yong;WEI Run-Bin;WU Jin-Yan;MAO Bao-Hua;TIAN Pei-Ning(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Metro Network Management Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China;Chongzuo Municipal Office for Reform and Development of Industrial Parks,Chongzuo 532200,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京轨道交通路网管理有限公司,北京100101 [3]崇左市产业园区改革发展办公室,崇左532200 [4]北京交通大学综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2025年第1期116-124,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：自然科学基金项目(71971021)。

摘　　要：高铁运行阶段直接产生的CO_(2)排放微乎其微,但因列车运行需要电力牵引,上游发电端带来的碳排放不可忽视。文中综合考虑了发电结构以及不同发电方式的碳排放水平,将高铁运行阶段碳排放因子作为高铁环保程度的评估指标。测算结果表明,2018、2019年我国高铁运行阶段碳排放因子水平为27.19、27.09 g CO_(2)/(人·km)。考虑发电端碳排放的高铁运输方式相较于公路、民航客运仍具有显著的环保优势,但发电结构中火电占比偏高导致我国高铁碳排放因子水平高于法国、德国、日本等发达国家。结合我国未来年发电结构的预测,当各发电方式碳排放水平较现状波动不大时,2030、2050年我国高铁运行阶段碳排放因子水平分别为10.87~14.18、2.83~9.49 g CO_(2)/(人·km),分别比高铁列车运输能力利用率较高的2019年降低了47.66%~59.87%、64.97%~89.55%。煤电碳排放因子下降时将实现高铁碳排放因子的同步下降,故推进煤电低碳化生产,高效应用煤电清洁生产新技术,有望进一步提升高铁低碳优势。研究成果将促进交通运输行业与能源行业相互协作,助推“双碳”战略实施。The direct carbon dioxide emissions generated during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation are minimal.However,the carbon emissions from electricity generation,required to power the trains,cannot be overlooked.This paper comprehensively considers the power generation structure and the carbon emissions levels of different power generation methods.It uses the carbon emission factor during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation as an assessment indicator of its environmental friendliness.The results indicate that in 2018 and 2019,the carbon emission factors during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation in China were 27.19 and 27.09 g CO_(2) per passenger-kilometer,respectively.High-speed railway transportation has more advantages in terms of low carbon than road and civil aviation.Besides,the high proportion of coal-fired power generation in China’s power structure results in higher carbon emission factors compared to developed countries such as France,Germany,and Japan.By combining predictions of China’s future power generation structure,when the carbon emission factors of each power generation mode remain unchanged,it is estimated that by 2030 and 2050,the carbon emission factors during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation in China will be 10.87-14.18 and 2.83-9.49 g CO_(2) per passenger-kilometer respectively,representing a reduction of 47.66%-59.87% and 64.97%-89.55% compared to 2019.Reducing coal-power carbon emission factor will synchronize with carbon diminution of high-speed railway.Promoting low-carbon production of coal-power and efficiently applying new technologies for clean production are expected to further enhance the low-carbon advantages of high-speed railway transportation.The research results promote the cooperation between transportation industry and energy industry,and boost the“dual carbon”goals.

关 键 词：高速铁路运输 运行阶段 碳排放因子 发电结构 

分 类 号：TM611[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] X731[环境科学与工程—环境工程]