2024年中国奶业经济形势回顾及2025年展望与发展思考  

China's Dairy Economy:2024 Review,2025 Outlook

作　　者：刘长全[1] LIU Changquan(Rural Development Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国乳业》2025年第2期2-9,共8页China Dairy

基　　金：财政部和农业农村部资助国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-36)项目;中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”农村经济学重点学科的研究成果。

摘　　要：2024年,中国奶业面临更加严峻的困难形势:原料奶价格继续大幅下降,价格水平创历史最低;养殖场(户)大面积亏损,社会牧场尤其困难;养殖场(户)产出增减并存,驱动过剩形势持续发展;乳制品消费明显下降。2025年,乳制品进口量面临反弹压力,使国内奶类供需保持偏松关系;原料奶产出与供需关系变化主要取决于乳品企业对自有、控股牧场产能调控举措,随着社会牧场大量退出,乳品企业因低价原料奶能获得的收益大幅减少,乳品企业维持过剩格局和较低社会奶源价格的动力已经下降。为促进奶业恢复和高质量发展,首要任务是抓住关键矛盾,推动供需尽快恢复平衡;底线任务是保护社会牧场生存空间,强化奶业民生属性;以放宽加工准入削弱垄断,倒逼利益联结机制建设,积极探索奶农办加工的多元实现形式。China's dairy industry faced severe challenges in 2024.Raw milk prices plummeted to historic lows,resulting in widespread losses for dairy farms,particularly impacting independent farms.While overall milk production saw mixed trends of increases and decreases,the oversupply situation persisted.Dairy product consumption also declined significantly.Looking ahead to 2025,import volumes are expected to rebound,further contributing to the oversupply in the domestic market.The dynamics of raw milk production and supply-demand balance will depend largely on the production adjustments made by dairy processors within their own and controlled farms.As a large number of independent farms exit the market,the profits enjoyed by processors due to low raw milk prices will diminish significantly,reducing their incentive to maintain the oversupply and low prices.To facilitate the recovery and high-quality development of the dairy industry,the primary task is to address the core contradiction and promote a swift rebalancing of supply and demand.The bottom line is to protect the survival of independent farms,reinforcing the livelihood aspect of the dairy sector.Relaxing processing market entry regulations to weaken monopolies,forcing the establishment of benefit-sharing mechanisms,and actively exploring diverse models of farmer-led processing are crucial steps forward.

关 键 词：奶业经济 供需关系 垄断 利益联结机制 社会牧场 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F326.3