Improving Tsunami Risk Analysis by Integrating Spatial Resolution and the Population's Evacuation Capacities:A Case Study of Cartagena,Chile  

作　　者：Jorge León Carolina Martínez Simón Inzunza Alonso Ogueda Alejandro Urrutia 

机构地区：[1]Departamento de Arquitectura,Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María,2390123 Valparaíso,Chile [2]Instituto de Geografia,Facultad de Historia,Geografía y Ciencia Política,Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile,7820436 Santiago,Chile [3]Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management(CIGIDEN),7820436 Santiago,Chile [4]Centro UC Observatorio de la Costa,7820436 Santiago,Chile [5]Department of Mathematical Sciences,George Mason University,Fairfax,VA22030,USA

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2024年第6期1001-1016,共16页国际灾害风险科学学报(英文版)

基　　金：funded by the Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management(CIGIDEN),ANID/FONDAP/1523A0009/2023;funded by the research grant ANID/FONDECYT/1210184;funded by the research grant ANID/FONDECYT/1241922 and the Centro UC Observatorio de la Costa。

摘　　要：Intensive human activity in global coastal areas has led to increasing exposure to hazards.Cartagena Bay in Chile,an area with a long history of tsunami disasters,has undergone significant urbanization and experiences heavy tourist activity during the summer.While some studies have examined risk in Cartagena by focusing on hazard and vulnerability characteristics,challenges remain in delivering more spatially accurate studies and incorporating the population's coping capacities.We undertook a tsunami risk assessment of Cartagena Bay that disaggregates social vulnerability to the census block level and assesses the inhabitants'pedestrian evacuation potential through an agent-based model.Our findings indicate that urban coastal areas in Cartagena Bay might face substantial tsunami risk in a worst-case scenario,with 31.0%to 54.1%of its territory—depending on the scale of analysis—classified as high-risk areas.Of the examined urban blocks,31.4%have average evacuation times exceeding 17 min(the critical time required by the tsunami to reach its run-up),and the most disadvantaged census block is 1,971.9 m away from its nearest shelter.We also demonstrated that a more spatially accurate vulnerability analysis is more conservative too.For instance,zones with high-risk levels decreased by 42.8%when the study scale moved from the block to the zone level of analysis.Similarly,areas with low risk increased by 80%.In comparison to previous studies,our findings show that tsunami risk in Cartagena Bay is significantly lower if coping capacities such as evacuation potential are included in the analysis.

关 键 词：TSUNAMI Risk analysis EVACUATION Agent-based model Chile 

分 类 号：P731.25[天文地球—海洋科学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]