基于证据理论与偏好信息的人员胜任能力多阶段评估决策研究  

A study of multi-stage assessment decision making for personnel competence based on evidence theory and preference information

作　　者：于卓廷 邓宏钟[1] 吴成星 罗晗康 YU Zhuo-ting;DENG Hong-zhong;WU Cheng-xing;LUO Han-kang(College of System Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学系统工程学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《控制与决策》2025年第2期479-487,共9页Control and Decision

摘　　要：人员能力评估是政府、企业确立岗位要求,选拔、任命优秀人才,制定培训计划,优化人才结构,促进发展的前提和基础.由于人员能力具有潜在性、模糊性、动态性,且评估专家存在个人偏好、有限理性和经验局限,对关键人员岗位胜任能力进行客观准确评估非常困难.作为一种处理不确定信息的数据融合方法,证据理论能够契合关键人员评估的自然过程.鉴于此,按照关键人员胜任能力评估的自然实操过程,分析人员胜任能力评估中各类数据、信息特征和证据合成过程,考虑评估过程的复杂性和多阶段性以及评估专家的有限理性和偏好,提出一种基于证据理论与偏好信息的多阶段多源证据融合的人员胜任能力评估决策方法,并以某校职称评审为例进行实例研究.Personnel competency assessment is the prerequisite and foundation for governments and enterprises to establish job requirements,select and appoint excellent talents,develop training plans,optimize talent structure,and promote development.Because personnel competency has potentiality,fuzziness,and dynamicity,and assessment experts have personal preferences,limited rationality,and experience limitations,it is very difficult to make objective and accurate assessment of key personnel’s post competency.As a data fusion method for uncertain information,evidence theory fits the natural process of key personnel assessment.Therefore,in accordance with the natural practical process of key personnel competency assessment,this paper analyses the various types of data,information characteristics and evidence synthesis process in personnel competency assessment,takes into account the complexity and multi-stage nature of the assessment process,considers the limited rationality and preferences of the assessment experts,and puts forward a decision-making method of personnel competency assessment based on multi-stage and multi-source evidence fusion based on the evidence theory and the information of preferences,and conducts a case study on the evaluation of the title of a certain university as an example.

关 键 词：偏好 D-S证据理论 人员胜任能力 评估决策 多阶段 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]