零售商后悔行为对两阶段供应链决策和利润的影响研究  

The role of retailers'regret behavior on two-stage supply chain decisionmaking and profit

作　　者：谷炜[1] 刘亚金 闫相斌 宋亚楠 GU Wei;LIU Ya-jin;YAN Xiang-bin;SONG Ya-nan(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510420,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]广东外语外贸大学,广州510420

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2025年第2期74-84,共11页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72072010,72025101,72394372,72271023);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9232023)。

摘　　要：针对由多个供应商和多个面临报童问题的零售商组成的供应链系统,将零售商订货决策过程中可能出现的后悔行为纳入供应链决策建模,对比了后悔驱动的行为决策和人工智能辅助的自动化决策的差异,并分析了零售商后悔对其自身利润、上游的供应商利润以及供应链整体利润造成的影响.研究发现,后悔导致零售商订货量相较于自动化库存决策发生偏移,同时提高了批发价格使得供应商获得价格优势,对供应链成员以及整体利润产生明显影响,并且这种影响可能会因供应链的扩张而被放大.管理者应重视并预估零售商后悔行为带来的影响,进而制定更为科学合理的决策策略.The trend toward decentralization in supply chains has amplified the importance of behavioral factors.This paper investigates a supply chain system involving multiple suppliers and retailers,specifically focusing on integrating retailers'potential regret behavior into the supply chain decision-making model.The differences between regret-driven behavioral decision-making and artificial intelligence-assisted automated decisionmaking are compared,and the impact of retailers'regret is analyzed on their profits,upstream supplier profits,and the overall profitability of the supply chain.The results show that regret prompts deviations in retailers'order quantities relative to those determined through automated inventory decisions,which leads to an increase in the wholesale price that provides suppliers with competitive pricing advantages.These effects significantly influence the profits of supply chain members and the overall system and may be amplified as the supply chain expands.Therefore,managers should recognize and anticipate the implications of retailers'regret behavior to develop more effective decision-making strategies.

关 键 词：零售商 供应商 STACKELBERG博弈 后悔行为 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]