大城市周边县域城镇空间结构优化的碳减排效应——基于人口空间分布的视角  

Carbon emission reduction effects of optimizing the urban spatial structure of counties around large cities: From the perspective of population spatial distribution

作　　者：邹璇[1] 杨旭 ZOU Xuan;YANG Xu(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410079

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2025年第2期330-349,共20页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23FJLB013);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ30181)。

摘　　要：进入城镇化新阶段,大城市周边县域迎来了重要发展机遇,同时也面临巨大的低碳发展压力。以地处东部三大城市群中心地带的143个县域为研究对象,结合多源空间大数据考察了城镇空间结构对碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:(1)城镇空间结构分散化对碳排放强度具有促增效应,一系列稳健性检验之后核心结论依然成立。(2)影响机制在于,城镇空间结构分散化通过挤占蓝绿生态空间、刺激私人交通需求及推动产业间异速增长三条渠道导致碳排放强度提高。(3)进一步讨论发现,城镇空间结构对碳排放强度的促增效应是核心区碳减排与边缘区碳增排的“净”效应;不同演化阶段下,城镇空间结构分散化对碳排放强度的影响存在边际递增;不同城市群中,城镇空间结构的最佳优化方式存在异质性。研究结果有助于大城市周边县域在持续挖掘城镇化潜力的同时保持甚至促进低碳发展,进而对其协调“城镇化”与“双碳”两大核心战略具有一定的理论和现实意义。Entering a new stage of urbanization,counties around large cities face significant development opportunities and immense low-carbon development pressures.This study examines 143 counties in the central areas of three major urban agglomerations in eastern China,using Landscan population distribution data,nighttime light data,and EDGAR carbon emission data.By applying the instrumental variable method,we investigate the impact of urban spatial structure on carbon emission intensity and its optimization directions.The study reveals that:(1)Decentralization of urban spatial structure increases carbon emission intensity.For every 0.01 unit increase in decentralization,carbon emissions increase by about 0.13 thousand tons per billion GDP.This core conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests.Economically,compared to 2007,the decentralization of urban spatial structure in 2019 led to an additional 62.07 million tons of carbon emissions,accounting for 8.69%of the total carbon emissions.(2)The study verifies the impact mechanisms from the dimensions of land,transportation,and industry.Specifically,decentralization increases carbon emission intensity through the encroachment on blue-green ecological spaces,stimulation of private transportation demand,and driving inter-industry growth through heteroscale effects.(3)Further discussion reveals that the promoting effect of urban spatial structure on carbon emission intensity results from the"net"effect of carbon reduction in core areas and an increase in peripheral areas.The impact of decentralization on carbon emission intensity shows marginal growth at different evolutionary stages.The optimal optimization methods for urban spatial structure vary among different urban agglomerations:counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should leverage the leading role of core areas,counties in the Yangtze River Delta should moderately control peripheral expansion,and counties in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should synergize carbon reduction efforts from both c

关 键 词：大城市周边县域 城镇空间结构 结构优化 碳减排 人口分布 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]