明清时期甘青地区饥荒及其社会影响与响应  

Famine and its social impact and response in the Gansu-Qinghai region during the Ming and Qing dynasties

作　　者：李存秀 刘峰贵 孙南沙 罗静 周强 陈琼 LI Cunxiu;LIU Fenggui;SUN Nansha;LUO Jing;ZHOU Qiang;CHEN Qiong(College of Geography,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学地理科学学院,西宁810008 [2]高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁810008

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2025年第1期335-347,共13页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(批准号:2019QZKK0906)资助。

摘　　要：历史时期的甘青地区是中原与西北民族相互交流的重要通道,也是中外文化交汇处,内部人口相对聚集,但其地处黄土高原向青藏高原过渡的关键地带,区域地貌环境复杂,气候变化显著,导致各类气象灾害频发,严重影响当地的社会经济发展。本研究基于历史文献资料,提取甘青地区68个县域单元的各类自然灾害与饥荒信息,利用语义差异法、地理空间分析法和数理统计等方法重建了明清时期甘青地区的饥荒时空序列,并进一步探讨饥荒成灾趋势对社会的影响及其响应。结果表明:1)明清时期甘青地区共发生饥荒881县次,发生频率为1.6次/a;1730~1850年为饥荒高发期,空间上主要沿河流向外扩散分布,在人口、农业和河流密集的区域,极易受到饥荒侵扰。2)甘青地区气候与季风关系紧密,即夏季风偏强,气候湿润,灾害少,夏季风偏弱,气候干旱,旱灾频发;饥荒与各类气象灾害之间呈正相关,其中饥荒与旱灾之间的相关系数为0.559(<0.01),即随着灾害县次不断增加,饥荒也在不断增加;3)当灾害发生导致粮食歉收时,政府会通过各种方式来削减负面影响,只有超过适应上限时,才会出现饥荒,进而导致出现社会动荡或战争;饥荒与战争之间的相关系数为0.211(<0.05),呈正相关,但相关性不显著;4)为应对饥荒,政府和社会层面采取的主要调节措施为:仓储备粮、赈济、蠲免和义赈等,其中仓储备粮属前期预防工作,赈济和蠲免是灾荒发生时政府给予赈灾,而义赈是在政府赈灾不力的情况下建立的社会救灾方式,都具有减轻社会危害,缓和社会矛盾的作用,这对现代疫灾防治救助有一些借鉴作用。During the historical period,the Gansu-Qinghai regions were an important channel for mutual exchanges between people of the Central Plains and the Northwestern ethnic minorities,as well as a crossroads of Chinese and foreign cultures,with a relatively high population concentration,however located in the key zone of the transition from the Loess Plateau to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,it is also a place with complex geomorphological environment and significant climate change,which led to the occurrence of various types of meteorological disasters,seriously affecting the local socio-economic development.Based on historical documents,this study extracts information of various natural disasters and famines from 68 county units in the Gansu-Qinghai regions,and reconstructs the spatiotemporal sequence of famines in the Gansu-Qinghai regions during the Ming and Qing dynasties by using the semantic difference method,geo-spatial analysis,and mathematical statistics,and further explores the impacts of famine-induced disasters on society and its responses.The results show that:(1)Famine occurred in 881 counties in the Gansu-Qinghai region during the Ming and Qing dynasties,with a frequency of 1.6 times/a;the high incidence of famine occurred from 1730 to 1850,and spatially,it was mainly spread outward along the river flow and the region with dense population,agriculture and rivers was extremely vulnerable to famine.(2)The climate of the Gansu-Qinghai regions is closely related to the monsoon,when the summer wind is strong,the climate is humid,there are fewer disasters,when the summer wind is weak,the climate is arid,there are frequent droughts.Weak summer winds,dry climate,frequent droughts;famine and various types of meteorological disasters are positively correlated,of which the correlation coefficient between famine and drought is 0.559(<0.01),that is,as the number of counties with disasters continues to increase,so does famine;(3)when disasters lead to food failures,the government cuts down the negative impacts in a vari

关 键 词：饥荒 明清时期 甘青地区 社会影响 

分 类 号：K871.45[历史地理—考古学及博物馆学]