气候变化下中国城市市树适宜分布区及适生规律  

Distribution and suitability of city trees in China under climate change

作　　者：谷婧娴 杨永川[1] 牟文博 靳程 GU Jingxian;YANG Yongchuan;MOU Wenbo;JIN Cheng(Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Eco-Environment,Ministry of Education,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400045

出　　处：《土木与环境工程学报(中英文)》2025年第2期197-208,共12页Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：重庆英才计划“包干制”项目(cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0204);重庆市技术创新与应用示范专项重点研发项目(cstc2018jszx-zdyfxm X0007)。

摘　　要：市树是城市园林绿化的重要组成部分,近年来气候变化使市树适生区迁移,影响城市人居环境可持续发展,因此,亟需了解气候变化下市树适宜分布区和适生规律。基于中国147个城市50种市树分布现状,使用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型研究2070s气候下市树适宜分布区变化,并通过分布区与城市行政区域重合度分析市树未来适生程度,为中国城市园林规划提供依据。结果表明:中国常见市树共50种,隶属24科42属,其中槐(Styphnolobium japonicum)、樟(Cinnamomum camphora)和银杏(Ginkgo biloba)应用最广,65.6%的城市选用乡土树种,89.5%的城市应用阔叶树;气候变化下,市树适生区移动方向复杂,面积趋于收缩(68%),以红树(Rhizophora apiculata)和欧洲白榆(Ulmus laevis)变化最大;未来市树适生性与其来源、城市区位相关,乡土植物相较于外来种适生性高,北方城市高适生市树比例较高,而南方以低适生市树为主。未来应综合考虑,因地制宜,引导城市园林绿化高质量发展。City trees are an important part of urban landscaping and greening.In recent years,climate change has caused the migration of city trees,which affects the sustainable development of urban living environment.Therefore,it is urgent to understand the suitable distribution areas and habitats of city trees under climate change.Based on the distribution status of 50 species of city trees in 147 cities in China,we used the MaxEnt model to study the changes of suitable distribution zones of city trees under the climate of 2070s,and analyzed the future suitability of city trees through the overlap of distribution zones and urban administrative areas,so as to provide a basis for urban landscape planning in China.The results showed that:There are 50 common city trees in China,belonging to 24 families and 42 genera,among which Styphnolobium japonicum,Cinnamomum camphora and Ginkgo biloba are the most widely used,65.6%of cities use native species,and 89.5%of cities use broadleaf trees;under climate change,the direction of movement of suitable areas for city trees is complex,and the area tends to contract(68%),with Rhizophora apiculata and Ulmus laevis showing the greatest changes;the future suitability of city trees is related to the source and urban location,and the suitability of native plants is higher to exotic species;the proportion of high suitability municipal trees is higher in northern cities,while low suitability city trees dominate in the south.In the future,comprehensive considerations should be made to guide the high-quality development of urban landscaping according to local conditions.

关 键 词：市树 气候变化 最大熵模型 物种分布区 适生性 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]