2024年中国主要气候风险及气象灾害概述  

Overview of the China climate risk and major meteorological disaster in 2024

作　　者：王雅琦 王国复[1] 刘远 乔琦 徐沅鑫 WANG Yaqi;WANG Guofu;LIU Yuan;QIAO Qi;XU Yuanxin(China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072

出　　处：《气象科学》2025年第1期1-12,共12页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2024YFF0809202);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室开放研究基金项目(SZKT202410);国家气候中心重点创新团队“第三极气候变化监测预估”(NCCCXTD007);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J071)。

摘　　要：本文利用1961—2024年中国区域2400余站地面气象逐日观测数据和灾情数据,采用气候年景指数、气候风险指数以及客观化气象灾害过程识别方法,对2024年中国主要气候风险特征及气象灾害进行系统性分析。结果表明,2024年我国气候年景总体偏差,气候风险指数为1961年以来最高,气象灾害造成的损失偏重。其中,区域型暴雨过程次数偏多,降水量大,华南前汛期降水量较常年偏多40%,长江中下游梅雨较常年偏多51%,气候风险指数创历史新高,造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失;高温过程次数偏少但持续时间长、范围广,高温风险指数为1961年以来第二高;干旱次数偏少且风险指数偏低,区域特征显著;台风登陆次数偏多,秋季台风活跃且极端性强,风险指数较常年值偏低;冷空气过程次数偏多,风险指数较常年值偏高。Based on the routine daily meteorological observation data at more than 2400 weather stations and disaster data in China from 1961 to 2024,this paper systematically summarized and evaluated the main climate risk characteristics and meteorological disasters in China during 2024.The analysis employs the climate status index,climate risk index,and an objective identification method for meteorological disaster processes.The assessment results show that the climate status of China in 2024 is poor,the climate risk index is the highest since 1961,and the losses caused by meteorological disasters are heavy.Among them,the number of regional rainstorm processes and accumulative precipitation are higher than normal.The precipitation during pre-rainy season in South China is 40%more than normal,and the Meiyu over middle and low region of the Yangtze River valley is 51%more than normal.The climate risk index of rainfall and flood reached a record high,causing heavy casualties and economic losses.The number of high-temperature processes is relatively low but high temperature weather covering a wide range and showing strong phased characteristics,the risk index is the second highest since 1961.The frequency of drought is relatively low and the risk index is low,but the regional characteristics are significant.More typhoons are making landfall,and the autumn typhoon is active and extreme,with a lower risk index than usual.The frequency of regional low-temperature processes is relatively high,and the risk index is higher than normal.

关 键 词：气候年景 气候风险指数 区域性极端天气过程 气象灾害 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]