基于聚类算法的天津雷暴移动特征分析  

Analysis on movement characteristics of thunderstorms in Tianjin with clustering algorithm

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作  者:姚慧茹 崔丹阳 宋喃喃 银峰 YAO Huiru;CUI Danyang;SONG Nannan;YIN Feng(Tianjin Meteorological Disasters Defense Technology Centre,Tianjin 300074,China)

机构地区:[1]天津市气象灾害防御技术中心,天津300074

出  处:《气象科学》2025年第1期95-108,共14页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基  金:天津市气象局科研项目(202116ybxm06)。

摘  要:基于2009—2020年天津地区闪电定位数据,利用密度峰值快速搜索聚类算法和卡尔曼滤波识别雷暴单体的移动轨迹,并通过基于动态时间规整的改进层次聚类算法统计天津雷暴的主要活动区域及其移动特征。结果表明,近12 a天津地区的地闪频数存在减少趋势,地闪频数的年变化呈单峰型,峰值出现在7月;日变化的峰值出现在午夜,谷值出现在上午;地闪密度呈北多南少的空间分布。根据闪电的丛聚特性在天津地区共识别出757条雷暴轨迹。雷暴具有明显的短时性、局地性特点,约三分之二雷暴的位移不超过20 km、持续时间不超过30 min,近三分之一的雷暴向正东方向移动。天津西北部是局地性雷暴最活跃的区域,较长轨迹的雷暴数量较少且分布较分散。西北类雷暴减少趋势最显著,雷暴数量的地域性差异变小。西北类雷暴6月出现最多,西南类雷暴7、8月出现数量相当,东部类雷暴8月出现最多,其他类雷暴则在7月出现最多。Based on the data from lightning detection and location system in Tianjin from 2009 to 2020,the thunderstorm cell tracks were identified by using clustering by fast search and find of density peaks and Kalman filtering,and the movement characteristics of thunderstorm in Tianjin were analyzed by the improved hierarchical clustering algorithm based on dynamic time warping.Results show that the frequency of ground lightning in Tianjin has a decreasing trend in recent 12 years.The monthly change of lightning frequency fluctuates in a single peak,and the peak value assumed in July.The peak value of daily variation appears at midnight and the valley value appears in the forenoon.Spatially,the density of lightning is denser in the northern Tianjin than in the southern.According to the clustering characteristics of lightning,757 thunderstorm tracks are identified in Tianjin,which have obvious regional and short-term features.There are about two-thirds of the thunderstorms which displacement is within 20 km and the duration does not exceed 30 min,and there are nearly one-third of the thunderstorms moving due east.Local thunderstorms are most active in north-western Tianjin.The thunderstorms with relatively long moving distance are not abundant,with disperse distribution.The results of cluster analysis show that the reduction trend of thunderstorm in north-western Tianjin is the most significant,indicating that the regional difference of the number of thunderstorms become smaller.Moreover,the number of thunderstorms in north-western Tianjin peaked in June,which in eastern Tianjin peaked in August,while the number of thunderstorms in south-western Tianjin peaked both in July and August.

关 键 词:雷暴单体 闪电定位数据 密度峰值快速搜索聚类算法 卡尔曼滤波 轨迹聚类 

分 类 号:P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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