气候因素与黄土高原植被的时间滞后关系分析  

Analysis of time lag relationships between climate factors and vegetation on the Loess Plateau

作　　者：汪士为 吴伟 WANG Shiwei;WU Wei(Department of Ecology,Culture and Tourism,Hubei University of Automobile Technology,Shiyan 442002,Hubei,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydro Power Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北汽车工业学院生态文旅系,湖北十堰442002 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《草业科学》2025年第2期329-339,共11页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：湖北汽车工业学院博士科研基金项目(BK202108)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化的背景下,探讨植被对气候因素的响应,对于区域生态保护及水土资源的可持续利用具有重要的现实价值。然而以往研究大多关注同时期气象因素和植被指标在区域尺度上的相互反馈,忽略了植被与气象因素之间的时间滞后效应。为明确植被与气象因素之间的时间滞后效应,本研究利用归一化植被指数(MODND1T/NDVI)时间序列和温度、降水量数据集,分析了黄土高原植被对不同气候因素的时间滞后效应,建立了多元线性回归模型和偏相关模型,确定了不同植被类型的主要气候驱动因素。结果表明:1)黄土高原不同植被类型和不同区域的植被对气候变化的响应方式和时间滞后效应都不同;2)考虑时间滞后效应后,气候因素能够解释黄土高原植被生长58.20%的变化,相对于不考虑时间滞后效应的模型,这一解释程度提高了10.00%;3)对于黄土高原MODND1T/NDVI在2000-2018年期间具有显著变化趋势的区域(P<0.05),主要驱动因素是温度。Against a backdrop of ongoing global climate change,investigating the response of vegetation to climatic factors is of particular practical importance with respect to the preservation of regional ecological services and the judicious utilization of water and soil resources.However,whereas previous studies have focused predominantly on the concurrent interplay between meteorological factors and vegetation indices at a regional scale,few have taken into consideration the effects of the temporal lag between vegetation and meteorological factors.In this study,we used a MODND1T/normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)time series,along with temperature and precipitation datasets,to examine the temporal lag effects of different climatic factors on vegetation distributed across the Loess Plateau.In addition to identifying the primary climate-driven factors for distinct vegetation types,we established multivariate linear regression and partial correlation models.We accordingly found that with respect to climate change,different vegetation types and regions across the Loess Plateau are characterized by differing response patterns and temporal lag effects.After accounting for temporal lag effects,we established that climatic factors can explain 58.2%of the observed variation in vegetative growth on the Loess Plateau.Compared with models that do not factor in temporal lag effects,this represents a 10%increase in explanatory power.Furthermore,for regions on the Loess Plateau with significant trends in MODND1T/NDVI between 2000 and 2018(P<0.05),we identified temperature as the primary driving factor.

关 键 词：气候变化驱动机制 时间序列分析 降水量 温度 标准化降水蒸散指数 时滞效应 

分 类 号：Q948.112[生物学—植物学]