基于EMD事件分析法的工业天然气价格波动规律研究  

Research on Fluctuation Law of Industrial Natural Gas Price Based on EMD Event Analysis Method

作　　者：张同蕾 马远 Zhang Tonglei;Ma Yuan(School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012;School of International Business and Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《中外能源》2025年第3期7-13,共7页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’建设对中国天然气贸易格局及国内价格形成机制影响研究”(编号:20BGL289);新疆财经大学校级科研创新项目“‘双碳’目标下碳排放权交易政策对能源结构调整的影响研究”(编号:XJUFE2023B004)。

摘　　要：天然气价格波动不仅影响能源供应链的稳定性和可持续性,还可能会对投资者和企业在清洁能源领域的决策产生重要影响。选取2001年1月至2023年12月中国工业天然气价格数据,将市场化改革进程分为四个阶段,运用经验模态分解(EMD)事件分析法,研究市场化改革对中国工业天然气价格波动的影响。通过将价格序列分解为多个本征模态函数和残差项,揭示不同时间尺度下的价格波动特征和影响其波动的经济原因。结果显示,我国工业天然气价格序列是由经济基本面决定的长期趋势、天然气供需失衡导致的短期高频震荡和天然气价格改革政策频繁调整带来的长期大幅波动三方面构成的。市场化改革的推进使天然气价格从初步探索阶段的频繁的不规则短期波动,逐步过渡到相对平稳的市场化改革新阶段,但2013年后频繁的政策调整导致价格长期大幅波动。可以通过深化天然气定价机制市场化改革、加强供需平衡管理、稳定政策预期及加强监管与引导等措施,促进天然气价格市场化改革。Natural gas price fluctuationaffects the stability and sustainability of the energy supply chain andhas an important impact on the decisions of investors and companies in the clean energy field.This paper se-lected the price data of China′s industrial natural gas from January 2001 to December 2023,divides the market reform process into four stages,and uses the empirical mode decomposition(EMD)event analysis method to study the impact of market reform on the price fluctuation of China′s industrial natural gas.The characteristics of price fluctuations under different time scalesand the economic reasons affecting their fluctuations are revealed by decomposing the price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions and residual terms.The results show that China′s industrial natural gas price series have three aspects:long-term trend determined by economic fundamentals,short-term high-frequency shocks caused by the imbalance of natural gas supply and demand,and long-term large fluctuations caused by frequent adjustments of natural gas price reform policies.The promotion of market reform made natural gas prices gradually transit from frequent irregular short-term fluctuation in the initial exploration stage to a relatively stable new stage of market reform,and the frequent policy adjustment after 2013 resulted in the long-term large fluctuation of the price.The market reform of natural gas prices can be promoted by deepening the market reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism,strengthening the management of supply and demand balance,stabilizing policy expectations,and strengthening supervision and guidance.

关 键 词：天然气价格 事件分析 价格波动特征 供需平衡 市场化改革 经验模态分解 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22