农村电商发展如何影响农民外出就业——来自中国乡村振兴调查数据的证据  

How Development of Rural E-Commerce has Affected Farmers’Out-Migration for Employment--Evidence from China s Rural Revitalization Survey Data

作　　者：郑旭刚 周闯[1,2] 张抗私 ZHENG Xu-gang;ZHOU Chuang;ZHANG Kang-si(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economies,Dalian 116025;Research Center of Labor Employment and Human Capital Development,Dongbei University of Finance and Economies,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学劳动就业与人力资本开发研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2025年第2期15-28,共14页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(24AJY021);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L23BJY020);中国商业统计学会规划一般课题(2024STY138)。

摘　　要：基于2020年中国乡村振兴调查数据,通过Probit模型检验农村电商发展对农民外出就业的影响。研究发现,农村电商发展能减少农民外出就业,增加农民收入、增强村民间情感联系和提升村民生活幸福感是主要作用机制。异质性分析显示,农村电商发展更倾向减少高平均年龄、家庭劳动力数量少以及低教育水平农户的外出就业。拓展性分析发现,户籍地农村电商发展能增强外出农民工的返乡意愿,表明农村电商发展不仅能留住农民,而且能吸引外出农民工返乡。Based on data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey,this study employed the Probit model to examine the impact of rural e-commerce development on farmers'out-migration for employment.The findings revealed that,the development of rural e-commerce could reduce the ratio of farmers'out-migration for employment,with the primary mechanisms being the promotion of farmers'income growth,the enhancement of emotional ties among villagers,and the improvement of life satisfaction.Heterogeneity analysis indicated that,the decrease effect of rural e-commerce development was more evident in rural households with a higher average age,fewer family laborers,and lower educational levels.Extended analysis revealed that,rural migrant workers might have a strengthened willingness to return home,when their hometowns have developed e-commerce.This finding suggested that,the development of rural e-commerce could retain farmers and attract migrant workers to return home.

关 键 词：农村电商 外出就业 返乡意愿 乡村振兴 新型职业农民 农民收入 情感联系 生活幸福感 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]