低碳城市试点政策对中国低碳经济转型的影响研究——基于中介渠道的门槛效应分析  

Research on the Impact of Low-carbon City Pilot Policies on China's Low-carbon Economic Transition--An Analysis of Threshold Effects through MediatingChannels

作　　者：严佳佳 介琼楠 YAN Jiajia;JIE Qiongnan

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2025年第2期144-163,共20页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“数字化时代产业集聚新模式:演进机理与效应评估”(72273031),项目负责人:余文涛。

摘　　要：本文选取2003—2021年中国281个地级市及以上城市为研究样本,运用包含非期望产出的超效率EBM-GML模型对低碳经济转型进行测度,并且采用渐进双重差分模型分析低碳城市试点政策对低碳经济转型的影响效应,进而从绿色技术进步和产业结构升级两个视角的多维因素探讨这一政策对低碳经济转型的线性和非线性作用机理。研究结果表明:(1)低碳城市试点政策有效促进了试点地区低碳经济转型。(2)以绿色技术创新和能源效率表征的绿色技术进步与以产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化表征的产业结构升级均发挥了部分中介作用。(3)进一步,在中介效应基础上进行门槛效应检验,表明中介变量所处的阶段不同,低碳城市试点政策对低碳经济转型具有明显的非线性影响。This article selects 281 prefectural-level and above cities in China from 2003 to 2021 as research samples,measure the rate of low-carbon economic transformation using the super-efficient EBMGML model incorporating undesirable output.Additionally,the progressive difference-in-differences model is utilized to analyze the impact of the low-carbon city pilot policy on the low-carbon economic transformation.Furthermore,the linear and non-linear action mechanisms of this policy on the low-carbon economic transformation are explored from the multi-dimensional factors in terms of green technological progress and industrial structure upgrading.The study's findings demonstrate that:(1)The low-carbon city pilot policy successfully encourages the pilot area's low-carbon economic transformation.(2)Both green technological advancements,which represented by green technological innovation and energy efficiency,and industrial structure upgrading,which characterized by rationalization and sophistication of the industrial structure,have played partial mediating roles.(3)Conducting a threshold effect test based on the mediating effect reveals that the low-carbon city pilot policy has a significant non-linear impact on the transformation to a low-carbon economy,depending on the stage of the mediating variable.

关 键 词：低碳城市试点政策 低碳经济转型 绿色技术进步 产业结构升级 超效率EBM-GML模型 渐进双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F124.6[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]