中国粮食主产区粮食生产、经济发展和生态保护的时空耦合  

Spatiotemporal coupling of grain production,economic development,and ecological protection in China′s major grain-producing areas

作　　者：周扬 虞思佳 俞紫嫣 ZHOU Yang;YU Sijia;YU Ziyan(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第4期1659-1673,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72373153,41871183);中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(22XNA022)。

摘　　要：粮食生产事关国计民生,粮食主产区作为国家粮食稳产保供的“压舱石”,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要作用。学界围绕主产区粮食生产与经济发展的关系开展了大量研究,但少有研究关注主产区粮食生产、经济发展与生态保护之间的关系。基于粮食主产区2000—2020年1265个县域单元的粮食生产、社会经济、生态保护、自然环境等数据,采用空间分析技术、耦合协调度模型和地理探测器模型,在系统分析主产区粮食生产、经济发展和生态保护时空格局演变特征的基础上,探究主产区粮食-经济-生态系统的时空耦合规律,并探测其主要驱动力。结果表明:①过去20年,主产区粮食生产、经济发展、生态保护均取得了较大成就,但后十年粮食增产、经济增速有所减缓,部分地区生态系统出现“退化”现象;主产区粮食生产重心向东北方向移动了288公里。②主产区粮食生产呈现东北三省和中部传统农区高、西部地区低的空间格局,经济发展水平呈现自东向西逐渐递减的梯度规律,NDVI呈现“南高北低、东高西低”分布格局。③研究期内主产区粮食-经济-生态系统的耦合协调度不断提升,但过去5年有所下降。④主产区粮食-经济-生态系统的耦合协调关系受多重因素共同作用,双因子交互驱动力大于单因子作用,交互作用类型以双因子非线性增强为主。研究结果有望为国家粮食安全战略和乡村振兴战略决策提供理论依据和实践支撑。Food production is crucial for national stability and the well-being of the population.As the“ballast”for ensuring stable food production and supply,major grain-producing areas play a vital role in safeguarding national food security.While academia has extensively studied the relationship between grain production and economic development in the major grain-producing areas,there is a dearth of research focusing on the interplay among grain production,economic development,and ecological protection.This study utilizes data on grain production,socioeconomic,ecological protection,and natural endowments from 1,265 counties in major grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020.Employing spatial analysis techniques,the coupling coordination degree model,and the geographical detector model,this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of grain production,economic development,and ecological protection in these areas.It further explores the spatiotemporal coupling patterns of the grain-economic-ecological system and identifies its primary driving forces.Results show that over the past 20 years,significant progress has been made in grain production,economic development,and ecological protection in major grain-producing areas.However,during the latter decade,the growth rates of grain production and economic development slowed,and some regions have experienced ecological degradation.Approximately 75%of counties in these areas showed an increasing trend in grain production,78%exhibited an upward trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),and GDP rising in almost all counties.Grain production in major grain-producing areas shows a spatial pattern of being high in the three northeastern provinces and central traditional agricultural areas and low in the western regions.Over the past two decades,the grain production center of the major grain-producing areas has shifted 288 kilometers to the northeast.Economic development levels decrease gradually from east to west,while NDVI displays

关 键 词：粮食主产区 粮食生产 经济发展 生态保护 耦合协调 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] F326.11[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X22