气候变暖环境下山东省干热风发生趋势分析  

Trend analysis of hot dry wind in Shandong Province under climate warming environment

作　　者：李娜 郝晓雷 Li Na;Hao Xiaolei(Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Heze 274000)

机构地区：[1]山东省菏泽市气象局,菏泽274000

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2025年第1期95-99,共5页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

摘　　要：为了更好地了解气候变暖环境下山东省干热风灾害的发生发展规律及影响范围,文章利用山东省国家级气象观测站观测资料,采用相关系数法、反距离权重空间差值法,统计山东省1972—2021年的气候条件变化及干热风灾害发生情况。结果表明:山东省干热风灾害性天气的发生及发展主要受平均日最高气温、平均日14:00空气相对湿度的影响,平均日14:00风速对干热风灾害的影响不大;山东省平均日最高气温呈极显著上升趋势,山东半岛东部沿海地区平均日最高气温明显低于内陆地区,但半岛地区平均日最高气温上升趋势大于内陆地区;山东省平均日14:00空气相对湿度呈极显著下降趋势,其中鲁中、鲁东北部地区下降趋势明显小于其他地区,鲁中、鲁西南及半岛地区平均日14:00空气相对湿度下降趋势明显;山东省干热风灾害整体呈鲁西北、鲁中北部地区多发,鲁南及半岛东部发生较少的特点;鲁中、鲁东南及半岛东部地区干热风灾害增多趋势明显,而鲁西北、鲁西南及鲁东北部的部分地区干热风灾害呈减少趋势。研究结果能为开展农业气象服务、适时使用减灾调控技术提供理论依据。In order to better understand the occurrence and development laws and impact scope of dry hot wind disasters in Shandong Province under the environment of climate warming,this article uses the observation data of the national meteorological observation station in Shandong Province,and adopts the correlation coefficient method and the inverse distance weight spatial difference method to statistically analyze the changes in climatic conditions and the occurrence of dry hot wind disasters in Shandong Province from 1972 to 2021.The results indicate that the occurrence and development of dry and hot wind disasters in Shandong Province are mainly affected by the average daily maximum temperature and the average daily relative humidity at 14:00.The average daily wind speed at 14:00 has little effect on dry and hot wind disasters.The average daily maximum temperature in Shandong Province is showing a significant upward trend.The average daily maximum temperature in the eastern coastal areas of the Shandong Peninsula is significantly lower than that in the inland areas,but the upward trend of the average daily maximum temperature in the peninsula areas is greater than that in the inland areas.The average daily relative humidity of 14:00 in Shandong Province shows a significant downward trend,with the decline trend in central and northeastern Shandong being significantly smaller than in other regions.The average daily relative humidity of 14:00 in central Shandong,southwestern Shandong,and the peninsula region also shows a significant downward trend.The overall occurrence of dry and hot wind disasters in Shandong Province is more frequent in the northwest and northern parts of Shandong Province,and less frequent in the southern part of Shandong Province and the eastern part of the peninsula.There is a clear trend of increasing dry and hot wind disasters in the central,southeastern,and eastern parts of Shandong Province,while some areas in the northwest,southwestern,and northeastern parts of Shandong Province show a decreas

关 键 词：山东省 干热风 趋势 突变 空间分布 

分 类 号：S429[农业科学—植物保护]