人口老龄化、机器人应用与企业价值链升级  

Population Aging,Robot Applications,and the Upgrading of Company Value Chains

作　　者：连慧君 傅圣杰 Lian Huijun;Fu Shengjie(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070;School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]北京大学现代农学院,北京100871

出　　处：《重庆社会科学》2025年第2期35-53,共19页Chongqing Social Sciences

基　　金：北京市教育委员会科研计划项目“人口老龄化对北京就业结构的影响及优化路径研究”(SM202310038006)。

摘　　要：在全球人口结构深刻变迁和智能制造加速发展的背景下,机器人应用能否有效应对人口老龄化对企业价值链升级的挑战,是一个亟待探讨的重要议题。基于中国微观企业数据和IFR工业机器人数据,实证探究了人口老龄化、机器人应用与企业价值链升级间的关系。研究发现:人口老龄化会抑制企业价值链升级。其中,企业的研发创新效应和进口中间投入效应是主要作用机制;机器人应用未能有效缓解人口老龄化对企业价值链升级的负面影响,反而强化了这种负面冲击;异质性分析显示,机器人应用在劳动密集型企业和低老龄化地区加剧了人口老龄化对企业价值链升级的负面影响,但在高老龄化地区则有缓解作用;拓展性研究发现,机器人应用能够提升企业出口产品质量,缓解人口老龄化对企业出口规模及出口扩展边际的负面影响。Against the backdrop of profound global demographic shifts and the accelerated development of intelligent manufacturing,whether the application of robots can effectively address the challenges posed by population aging to company value chain upgrading remains an urgent issue for investigation.Using micro-level company data from China and IFR industrial robot data,this study empirically examines the relationship between population aging,robot adoption,and company value chain upgrading.The findings reveal that population aging hinders company value chain upgrading,with R&D innovation effects and imported intermediate input effects serving as the primary mechanisms.Moreover,robot adoption fails to mitigate the negative impact of population aging on company value chain upgrading;instead,it reinforces this adverse effect.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that robot adoption exacerbates the negative impact of population aging on value chain upgrading in labor-intensive companies and regions with low aging levels,whereas it alleviates this impact in regions with high aging levels.Furthermore,the extended analysis suggests that robot adoption enhances company export product quality and mitigates the negative effects of population aging on company export scale and extensive export margins.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 工业机器人 企业价值链升级 研发创新 进口中间投入 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]