基于回归预测的母线电量不平衡率分析方法  

Analysis of Electricity Unbalance Rate of Busbar Based on Regression Forecasting

作　　者：沈天时 王俊翔 时宇飞 邬盼盼 SHEN Tianshi;WANG Junxiang;SHI Yufei;WU Panpan(State Grid Shanghai Shibei Electric Power Supply Company,Shanghai 200072,China;Research&Development Institute of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518063,China)

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力公司市北供电公司,上海200072 [2]西北工业大学深圳研究院,广东深圳518063

出　　处：《电力大数据》2025年第1期87-96,共10页Power Systems and Big Data

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2024A1515010308)。

摘　　要：母线电量不平衡率是评估供电企业运营水平的关键指标。随着变电站的改造和升级,当母线不平衡率出现异常时,仅依赖现场调试和SCADA数据比对等传统方法进行排查,效率往往低下,且容易无功而返。为解决这一难题,该文提出了一种集成负荷预测与电能采集系统的在线分析方法,运用回归算法来预测电量变化趋势,并通过将预测值与采样值进行对比,实现数据异常监测,从而提高故障排除的效率和准确性。此外,该文还设计了一套包含母线-线路拓扑判定、故障定位、故障定型的母线不平衡率异常分析流程。最终,通过算例分析验证了该平台方案的有效性。Electricity unbalance rate of busbar is the key indicators for measuring operating level of power supply enterprises.With the reforming and upgrading of substations,the abnormality of electricity unbalance rate of busbar can not be judged high efficiently and successfully only by traditional methods such as on-site inspection or SCADA data comparison.In order to solve this problem,this paper proposes an online analysis method based on load forecasting and energy collection system,predicting the change trend of electricity quantity through regression algorithm,monitoring data abnormality by comparing load forecasting value and sampling ones,promoting fault elimination efficiency and accuracy,also devising steps of abnormality analysis of electricity unbalance rate of busbar including topology identification,fault location fixing,fault type determination according to the method.the method is also proved to be effective by a calculation example.

关 键 词：母线电量不平衡率 负荷预测 电能采集系统 在线分析 回归算法 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]