四川省三州地区基层医疗卫生机构人力资源需求预测与供给公平性分析  

Human resource demand prediction and supply equity analysis of primary medical and health institutions in Sanzhou area of Sichuan Province

作　　者：丁梅 郭金云[2] 严云鹰 桑振修[1] 金必辉[1] Ding Mei;Guo Jinyun;Yan Yunying;Sang Zhenxiu;Jin Bihui(Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2025年第1期29-33,46,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

基　　金：四川省科技计划软科学项目科研课题(2023JDR0257)。

摘　　要：目的预测2022—2031年四川省三州地区基层医疗卫生机构人力资源需求,并分析供给公平性,为实现四川省基本公共卫生服务均等化提供人力资源支持。方法构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测2022—2031年卫生人力资源需求;使用泰尔指数分析2011—2021年基层卫生资源配置公平性。结果四川省三州地区基层医疗卫生机构卫生人员需求呈上升趋势,但人才需求存在缺口。卫生资源配置不均衡,特别是在地理维度上,三州地区卫生资源配置的不公平性更为突出。人力资源供给结构亟待优化。结论制定符合西部民族地区特点的卫生人力资源配置规划,综合考虑人口、地理等因素,通过政策引导加大外部人才引进,并加强本土人才培养与能力提升,以弥补需求缺口。Objective To predict the human resource demand of primary medical and health institutions in the Sanzhou area of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2031,analyze the supply equity,and to provide human resources foundation for promoting the equalization of basic public health services in the province.Methods The grey GM(1,1)prediction model was used to forecast the demand for health human resources from 2022 to 2031.The Theil index was employed to analyze the allocation of primary health resources in the Sanzhou area of Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021.Results The demand for health personnel in primary medical and health institutions in the Sanzhou area of Sichuan Province showed an upward trend,with a gap in talent demand.There was an imbalance in the allocation of health resources,especially on geographic dimensions,Sanzhou area indicated a more serious issue of unfair allocation of health resources,with a need to improve the structure of human resources supply.Conclusion A human resources allocation plan for health that aligns with the characteristics of ethnic regions in western China should be developed,taking into account population,geography and other factors.Policy guidance should be used to increase the recruitment of external talents and strengthen the training and capacity building of local talents to address the demand gap.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源配置 公平性 泰尔指数 三州地区 

分 类 号：R193[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]