福州市大气细颗粒物对居民死亡影响的分析  

Analysis of the impact of atmospheric fine particulate matter on the death of residents in Fuzhou City

作　　者：林振武 周权[1] 康淑玲 Lin Zhenwu;Zhou Quan;Kang Shuling(Fuzhou Center For Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou,Fujian 350004,China)

机构地区：[1]福州市疾病预防控制中心,福建福州350004

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2025年第1期114-117,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

摘　　要：目的研究福州市大气污染物PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)对居民死亡的短期影响,为制定防治污染政策提供依据。方法收集福州市大气污染物、气象、死因数据,按照污染物是否为一级达标,分组分析对居民死亡的影响。应用假定Possion分布风险模型和GLM模型时间序列分别分析PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)对居民的超额死亡人数急性死亡风险评估与居民死亡的关系。结果大气污染物PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度与居民死亡人数存在明显的正相关性。PM_(10)污染每升高10μg/m^(3)时,除意外总死亡、循环系统死亡人数的最大ER为0.86(lag1)、0.76(lag1)。PM_(2.5)污染每升高10μg/m^(3)时,除意外总死亡、呼吸系统死亡、循环系统死亡人数的最大ER值分别为1.50(lag1)、2.34(lag1)和1.30(lag1)。结论大气污染物PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)在较低浓度时,其污染浓度的升高依然能够明显增加除意外总死亡、呼吸系统死亡、循环系统死亡人数的风险。Objective To study the short-term effects of atmospheric pollutants PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) on the death of residents in Fuzhou City and provide a basis for the formulation of pollution prevention policies.Methods Collecting the data of atmospheric pollutants,meteorology and death causes in Fuzhou City,the influence of pollutants on the death of residents was analyzed in groups according to whether the pollutants met the first-level standards.Hypothesis Possion distributed risk model and GLM model time series were used to analyze the impact of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) on the acute death risk assessment of excess death toll among residents and their relationship with the death of residents.Results The concentrations of atmospheric pollutants PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) had a significant positive correlation with the death toll of residents.When PM_(10) pollution increased by 10μg/m^(3),the max ER of death toll except for total accidental deaths and circulatory system deaths were 0.86%(lag1)and 0.76(lag1).When PM_(2.5) pollution increased by 10μg/m^(3),the max ER values of death toll except for total accidental deaths,respiratory system death and circulatory system death were 1.50(lag1),2.34(lag1)and 1.30(lag1).Conclusion At low concentrations of atmospheric pollutants PM_(2.5) and PM_(10),the increase in pollution concentration can still significantly increase the risk of death toll except for total accidental deaths,respiratory system deaths and circulatory system deaths.

关 键 词：细颗粒物污染 死亡风险评估 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]