2025年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测  

Analysis and Projection of International Crude Oil Prices in 2025

作　　者：赵鲁涛[1] 曲直 孙嘉伟 何泽轩 ZHAO Lutao;QU Zhi;SUN Jiawei;HE Zexuan(School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 102400,China;School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理学院能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学数学与统计学院,北京102400 [3]贵州大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期7-11,共5页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72271028,72488101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金。

摘　　要：2024年,全球经济温和复苏,在政策转向分化、供需博弈加剧、局部冲突频发等多重因素叠加作用下,国际油价跌宕起伏,年均值下降。展望2025年,从基本面和非基本面着手,分析全球经济、能源转型、供应、库存、美元、市场投机、黄金和地缘政治等因素的未来动向,结合预测模型客观计算和专家的主观判断,对2025年国际原油价格走势进行整体研判和预测。预计2025年国际原油价格中枢延续下行态势,市场供需偏紧,但需求增速不及供应,地缘冲突仍是重要风险因素,短期内将增强不确定性,Brent、WTI原油均价将在67~77美元/桶和62~72美元/桶。In 2024,the global economy experienced a moderate recovery,while international oil prices declined,influenced by a combination of factors such as divergent policy shifts,intensified supply and demand dynamics,and frequent local conflicts.Looking forward to 2025,from the perspective of fundamentals and non-fundamentals,in the paper the future trajectory of the global economy,energy transformation,supply,inventory,the US dollar,market speculation,gold and geopolitical factors were analyzed.The forecast result integrates objective calculations from predictive models with subjective judgments from experts.It is anticipated that international crude oil price will continue its downward trend in 2025.Although market supply and demand will be tight,the growth rate of demand is not expected to keep pace with supply.Geopolitical conflicts remain a significant risk factor,contributing to short-term uncertainty.The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are projected to be in the range of$67~$77 per barrel and$62~$72 per barrel,respectively.

关 键 词：原油价格 价格预测 市场分析 能源转型 地缘政治冲突 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]