追逐高学历、青睐理工科和热衷东部飞的真相——高校扩招影响个体高等教育收益的视角  

The Truth About Chasing Higher Education,Favoring Science and Technology,and Avidly Flying to the East:A Perspective Based on the Impact of College Expansion on Individual Earnings

作　　者：赵庆年[1] 刘克 Qingnian Zhao;Ke Liu(School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学公共管理学院,广州510641

出　　处：《教育与经济》2025年第1期21-29,共9页Education & Economy

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金后期资助一般项目“中国高等教育的经济社会效能研究”(编号:22FSHB002)。

摘　　要：追逐高学历、青睐理工科和热衷到东部地区求学、就业成为现阶段社会普遍现象。本文引入“信号理论”,并基于2018年中国劳动力调查数据,采用双重差分模型来识别高校扩招对个体收益的影响。研究发现:(1)随着高校持续扩招,高等教育的个体收益在缓慢下降,平均下降幅度为39.89%;(2)各个层次学历的高等教育个体收益均处于下降趋势,但学历层次越低个体收益下降幅度越大;(3)所有科类专业的高等教育个体收益均有所下降,但人文社科专业的个体收益下降幅度明显大于理工科专业;(4)东、中、西部地区的高等教育个体收益均处于下降趋势,但西部地区下降幅度明显大于东部地区。以上结论从高等教育个体收益的视角解释了追逐高学历、青睐理工科和热衷到东部地区求学、就业现象背后的逻辑。At this stage,it has become a common phenomenon in the society to pursue higher education,to favor science and technology,and to go to the eastern region for education and employment.This paper introduces the“signal theory”,and based on the 2018 China Labor Force Survey data,a double difference model is used to identify the impact of higher education expansion on individual earnings.It is found that:(1)with the continuous expansion of colleges and universities,the individual earnings of higher education are slowly decreasing,with an average decrease of 39.89%;(2)the individual earnings of higher education at all levels of education are in a decreasing trend,but the lower the level of education,the larger the decrease in individual earnings;(3)the individual earnings of higher education in all disciplines are decreasing,but the decrease in individual earnings for humanities and social sciences is significantly larger than that for science and technology;(4)the individual earnings for humanities and social sciences are decreasing.(3)The individual earnings of higher education in all disciplines have declined,but the decline in individual earnings for humanities and social sciences majors is significantly larger than that for science and technology majors;(4)The individual earnings of higher education in the eastern,central and western regions are in a declining trend,but the decline in the western region is significantly larger than that in the eastern region.The above conclusions explain the logic behind the phenomenon of chasing high education,favoring science and technology majors and eagerly seeking education and employment in the eastern region from the perspective of individual earnings in higher education.

关 键 词：高校扩招 个体收益 学历层次 科类专业 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]