里下河地区土地利用转型对生态系统服务价值的影响——基于Markov-FLUS模型的多情景模拟分析  

The impact of land use transition on ecosystem service value in Lixiahe area:Multi-scenario simulation based on Markov-FLUS model

作　　者：陈欣蔚 李红波[1,2] 张文博 葛小平 CHEN Xinwei;LI Hongbo;ZHANG Wenbo;GE Xiaoping(School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China;College of Geography and Remote Sensing,Hohai University,Nanjing 211000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023 [3]河海大学地理与遥感学院,南京211000

出　　处：《资源科学》2025年第1期182-195,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071224);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(21FSHB014)。

摘　　要：【目的】江苏省里下河地区是淮河流域重要的江滩平原河网洼地,是农业、生态、城市交错的典型地带。在生态文明建设背景下,模拟多情景下该区域土地利用转型及其对生态系统服务价值的影响具有现实指导意义。【方法】本文基于里下河地区1990、2005、2020年3期土地覆被数据,对土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化特征进行分析,设置惯性发展、耕地保护和生态优先3种情景,使用Markov-FLUS模型模拟土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响。【结果】①1990—2020年,研究区土地利用以耕地为主导类型,土地利用变化主要表现为耕地减少以及建设用地增加;土地利用类型转化形式以耕地→湿地/建设用地为主,转换活跃区域集中在中部和东西边界地带。②1990、2005、2020年研究区生态系统服务价值呈逐年增长趋势,空间格局相对稳定,整体表现为“四周低、中间高”的分布特征。③Markov-FLUS模型在该区域具备较强的适用性,使用该模型对研究区2035年惯性发展、耕地保护、生态优先3种情景模拟后发现,生态优先情景对于里下河地区而言是优化土地利用结构、促进生态系统服务价值进一步增长的最佳模式。【结论】应重视耕地资源保护,集约利用现有建设用地,加强河湖水域管理,实施湿地修复,促进里下河地区绿色可持续发展。[Objective]The Lixiahe area in Jiangsu Province is an important river floodplain network depression in the Huaihe Basin,and it is a typical zone where agriculture,ecology,and urbanization interweave.In the context of ecological civilization construction,simulating the land use transformation in this region under multiple scenarios and its impact on the value of ecosystem services have practical guiding significance.[Methods]Based on the land cover data of 1990,2005 and 2020,this paper analyzes the characteristics of land use and changes in ecosystem service value.Three scenarios,namely,inertial development,cultivated land protection and ecological priority,are set up,and the Markov-FLUS model is used to simulate the impact of land use change on ecosystem service value.[Results](1)From 1990 to 2020,the dominant land use type in the study area was cultivated land.The main changes in land use were the reduction of cultivated land and the increase of construction land.The main form of land use type transformation was from cultivated land to wetland or construction land,and the active transformation areas were concentrated in the central and eastern and western boundary areas.(2)The ecosystem service value of the study area in 1990,2005 and 2020 showed a year-on-year increasing trend,and the spatial pattern was relatively stable.Overall,it presented a distribution feature of“low on the periphery and high in the center”.(3)The Markov-FLUS model has strong applicability in the region.After using this model to simulate three scenarios for the study area in 2035,namely inertial development,cultivated land protection,and ecological priority,it was found that the ecological priority scenario is the best mode for optimizing land use structure and promoting further growth in ecosystem service value in the Lixiahe area.[Conclusion]Emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land resources,intensive utilization of existing construction land,strengthening the management of river and lake waters,and wetland rest

关 键 词：土地利用转型 生态系统服务价值 多情景模拟 Markov-FLUS模型 里下河地区 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]