金沙江干热河谷碳储量时空演变与多情景模拟  

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in the Dry-Hot Valley of the Jinsha River

作　　者：汪东川 杨菲 郎明伟 贾世杰 刘云绮 李亭蓉 曾孔鹏 张万恒 WANG Dongchuan;YANG Fei;LANG Mingwei;JIA Shijie;LIU Yunqi;LI Tingrong;ZENG Kongpeng;ZHANG Wanheng(School of Geology and Geomatics,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300384,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Aquatic Science and Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学地质与测绘学院,天津300384 [2]天津市水质科学与技术重点实验室,天津300384

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(理学版)》2025年第1期39-52,共14页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271103)。

摘　　要：探究区域土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系可以为优化国土空间结构、保持地区碳平衡提供有力政策支撑。利用In VEST模型探究金沙江干热河谷1995―2020年区域内土地利用变化与生态系统碳储量时空变化特征之间的关系。结果表明:1)1995―2020年研究区林地和草地面积大幅减少,水域和建设用地面积增加;2)1995―2020年研究区碳储量整体为“中心高,四周低,西部高于东部”的空间分布特征,整体呈下降趋势,累计损失30.72×10^(5) t,林地和草地面积降低是碳储量减少的主要原因。运用PLUS模型和In VEST模型分别预测金沙江干热河谷2020―2030年三种不同情景下土地利用变化以及碳储量空间分布情况,结果表明:2030年自然增长情景、生态保护情景、耕地保护情景下的碳储量较2020年将分别减少12.90×10^(5)、3.60×10^(5)、7.23×10^(5) t。生态保护情景能有效缓解碳损失,为区域生态环境治理提供了重要参考。Exploring the relationship between regional land use change and carbon storage can provide robust policy support for optimizing land spatial structure and maintaining regional carbon balance.The InVEST model was used to analyze the relationship between land use changes and ecosystem carbon storage in the dry-hot valley of the Jinsha River region for the periods of 1995―2020.The results show that:1)From 1995 to 2020,the study area experienced a significant reduction in forest and grassland areas,while the areas of water bodies and construction land increased.2)From 1995 to 2020,the carbon storage in the study area exhibited a spatial distribution characterized by higher in the center,lower around the edges,and higher in the west than in the east.Overall,it showed a declining trend,with a cumulative loss of 30.72×10^(5) t.The reduction in forest and grassland areas was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage.The PLUS model and the InVEST model were used to predict the land use changes and the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the dry-hot valley of the Jinsha River region for the period of 2020―2030 under three different scenarios,respectively.The results show that:By 2030,under the scenarios of natural growth,ecological protection,and farmland conservation,the carbon storage will decrease by 12.90×10^(5) t,3.60×10^(5) t,and 7.23×10^(5) t respectively compared to 2020.Ecological protection scenarios can effectively mitigate carbon losses and provide an important reference for regional ecological environment management.

关 键 词：碳储量 土地利用 干热河谷 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]