基于Census X12季节调整及HP滤波法的广西食用菌价格波动分析  

Analysis of Price Fluctuation of Edible Mushroom in Guangxi Based on Census X12 Seasonal Adjustment and HP Filtering Method

作　　者：蓝秋彤 祁亮亮 陆宇明[2] 赵博伟[3] 熊娜 LAN Qiutong;QI Liangliang;LU Yuming;ZHAO Bowei;XIONG Na(College of Agriculture,Guangxi University,Nanning,Guangxi 530004;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi 530007;Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Industry Development Research Institute,Guangxi University,Nanning,Guangxi 530004;School of Management,Guangxi University for Nationalities,Nanning,Guangxi 530006)

机构地区：[1]广西大学农学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西壮族自治区农业科学院,广西南宁530007 [3]广西大学农牧产业发展研究院,广西南宁530004 [4]广西民族大学管理学院,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《北方园艺》2025年第5期141-150,共10页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学研究资助项目(23FSH032);国家食用菌产业技术体系建设专项资助项目(CARS20);国家现代农业产业技术体系广西创新团队建设资助项目(nycytxgxcxtd-2021-07-01);国家社会科学基金资助项目(22BJY097)。

摘　　要：食用菌作为重要经济作物,对广西巩固脱贫攻坚成果、促进乡村振兴起有力推动作用,其价格波动直接影响到生产者和消费者的利益。通过Census X12季节调整法和HP滤波法对6种广西主栽食用菌种类批发价格(2017—2023年)进行分析,获得价格走势规律及波动特征,以期为广西食用菌产业发展提供参考依据。结果表明:广西食用菌价格具有明显的季节性和周期性波动特征,季节波动多为一年一循环,姬菇波动周期最长,秀珍菇周期最短;灵芝周期波峰谷差最大,鲜香菇最小;研究周期内灵芝均价最高,鲜黑木耳最低,干品均价远高于鲜品;变异系数方面,香菇干鲜品、姬菇的价格相对较稳定,灵芝、双孢蘑菇价格波动较大。应从加强宏观调控、健全食用菌价格监测预警体系、加强仓储保鲜设施建设、壮大新型经营主体力量等方面稳定价格。As an important cash crop,edible mushroom plays a powerful role in consolidating the results of poverty alleviation and promoting rural revitalization in Guangxi,and its price fluctuations directly affect the interests of producers and consumers.The wholesale prices of six Guangxi staple edible mushroom species were analyzed by Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method from 2017 to 2023,the price trend pattern and fluctuation characteristics was obtain,in order to provide reference for development of edible mushrooms industry.The results showed that Guangxi edible mushroom prices had obvious seasonal and cyclical fluctuation characteristics,seasonal fluctuations more than one year cycle,shiitake mushroom had the longest fluctuating cycle,shiitake mushroom had the shortest cycle;reishi mushroom had the largest difference between peaks and valleys in its cycle,and fresh shiitake mushroom had the smallest;the average price of reishi mushrooms was the highest and that of fresh black fungus was the lowest during the study period,while the average price of dried products was much higher than that of fresh products;regarding the coefficient of variation,the prices of dried and fresh shiitake mushrooms and shimeji mushrooms were relatively stable,while the prices of reishi and bisporus mushrooms were more volatile.Price stabilization should be achieved by strengthening macroeconomic regulation and control,improving the price monitoring and early warning system for edible fungi,strengthening the construction of storage and preservation facilities,and expanding the power of new business entities.

关 键 词：食用菌 市场价格 季节调整 HP滤波法 广西 

分 类 号：F[经济管理]