脱贫户收入下降:返贫风险识别与防返贫路径选择——基于内蒙古脱贫户的多案例研究  

Decline in Income of Poverty-stricken Households:Identifying the Risk of Returning to Poverty and Choosing the Path to Prevent Returning to Poverty--A Multi-case Study of Poverty-stricken Households in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：陆鹏杰 张宝[1] 乔光华[1] LU Pengjie;ZHANG Bao;QIAO Guanghua(College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot010011,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010011

出　　处：《现代农业》2025年第1期7-16,共10页Modern Agriculture

基　　金：基本科研业务费项目:畜牧业经济理论与政策创新团队(BR-3-19)。

摘　　要：在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的关键时期,脱贫户是否会返贫和如何做好防返贫就显得尤为重要。文章以内蒙古脱贫户收入下降地区的87个典型案例为基础,以收入下降脱贫户、收入未下降脱贫户、扶贫干部为研究对象,从客观环境和主体差异、内生因素和外力驱动视角出发,构建脱贫户收入下降风险因素模型和路径传导模型。结果表明:2021年内蒙古部分脱贫户收入下降主要受环境因素的影响,其中政策和市场因素影响更突出。总体来看,现阶段内蒙古产业发展稳定,暂无返贫风险。未来为更精准有效地抑制返贫风险,需要建立以政府为先导、多元主体协同参与的长效机制。In the critical period of consolidating and expanding the results of poverty eradication and effectively linking rural revitalization,it is particularly important to know whether poverty-stricken households will return to poverty and how to do a good work of preventing poverty-stricken households from returning to poverty.Based on 87 typical cases in Inner Mongolia’s poverty-stricken households income decline areas,this study took poverty-stricken households with declining incomes,poverty-stricken households with underlining incomes,and poverty-stricken cadres as the research objects,to construct the poverty-stricken households income decline risk factor model as well as the path conduction model from the perspectives of the objective environment,the subjective differences,the endogenous factors,and the external driving forces.The results showed that:The income decline of partial the poverty-stricken households in Inner Mongolia in 2021 was mainly affected by environmental factors,among which the influence of policy and market factors was more prominent.Overall,the industrial development of Inner Mongolia is stable at this stage,and there is no risk of returning to poverty for the time being.In the future,in order to more accurately and effectively curb the risk of returning to poverty,it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism led by the government with the participation of multiple actors.

关 键 词：脱贫户 收入下降 返贫风险 路径选择 扎根理论 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F327.8