改革开放以来中国区域城镇化格局及演化机制  

Evolution and mechanism of China’s regional urbanization pattern

作　　者：管卫华[1,2] 吴小妮 李焕兰 张惠 吴巍[4] 吴连霞[5] Guan Weihua;Wu Xiaoni;Li Huanlan;Zhang Hui;Wu Wei;Wu Lianxia(School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Geographic Information Resources of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;School of Urban Construction,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330008,Jiangxi,China;Population Research Institute,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [3]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023 [4]江西师范大学城市建设学院,江西南昌330008 [5]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第2期265-277,共13页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH023);国家自然科学基金项目(42161032);南京市软科学重点项目(202403002);南京市社会科学基金专项(23YB02)资助。

摘　　要：本文运用Mann-Kendall方法将改革开放以来的中国城镇化增长率划分为1978—1994年、1995—2020年2个阶段,并对不同阶段的中国省域城镇化格局进行了分析。利用面板数据从区域内、区域间层面对形成这种格局的动力机制进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)中国省域城镇化的时空动态差异特征显著,1978年城镇化格局整体上呈现出北高南低、东高西低的格局;1994年表现为北方和东南沿海省份城镇化率等级相对较高,西南省份相对等级较低;2020年已形成由东向西逐级递减的格局;(2)空间杜宾模型估计结果显示,劳动力需求作为拉力对区域间城镇化率提升作用强于区域内;城乡收入差距对城镇化率的作用效应表现为先抑制后促进,对区域间的作用强度始终强于区域内;区域经济发展差异作为地区间推力对城镇化的正向效应仅在前一阶段显著;地区间城镇收入差距作为地区间拉力对城镇化率的影响总体表现为先抑制后促进,作用效应由区域间强于区域内转变为区域内强于区域间;(3)地理加权回归结果表明,在经济较为发达的地区,劳动力需求和城乡收入差距作为地区内推、拉力对各省城镇化提升具有正向驱动效应;区域经济发展差异和地区间城镇收入差距对城镇化的正向推进效应在空间上的波动明显,随时间变化越来越强,表明区域间、城乡间的发展差距作为地区间推、拉力正在不断促进各区域的城镇化发展。Using the Mann-Kendall method,the growth rate of China’s urbanization since the reform and opening up was divided into 2 stages,1978—1994 and 1995—2020,and the pattern of China’s provincial urbanization in different stages was analyzed.Using panel data,the dynamic mechanism of this pattern was discussed from the intra-regional and inter-regional levels.The results show that:1)The spatial and temporal dynamic differences of China’s provincial urbanization are significant.In 1978,China’s regional urbanization pattern showed a pattern of high in the north and low in the south,and high in the east and low in the west.In 1994,the pattern of urbanization presented the urbanization rate of the provinces in the north and southeast coasts is relatively high,and southwestern provinces are relatively low.The urbanization level in 2020 has formed a pattern of gradual decline from east to west.2)The estimation results of spatial Durbin model show that labor demand as a pulling force has a stronger effect on the urbanization rate between regions than within regions;The effect of the income gap between urban and rural areas on urbanization rate is firstly suppressed and then promoted,and the intensity of the effect between regions is always stronger than that within regions.The regional economic development disparities,acting as an inter-regional push factor,have a significant positive effect on urbanization only in the initial phase;the income gap between urban areas,serving as an inter-regional pull factor,overall shows an effect that initially suppresses and then promotes urbanization rates,with the impact shifting from being stronger inter-regionally to being stronger intra-regionally.3)The results of Geographically Weighted Regression model show that,in economically developed regions,labor demand and urban-rural income gap,as regional push and pull forces,have a positive driving effect on the urbanization of each province.The positive effect of regional economic development differences and inter-regional urban

关 键 词：区域城镇化 地理加权回归 空间杜宾 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学]