教育政务数据开放风险识别与仿真研究——基于系统动力学的演化分析  

Research on Opening Risk Identification and Simulation Study of Data for Educational Government Affairs——Evolutionary Analysis Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：黄嘉松 万昆 郑旭东[1] 李荣辉 HUANG Jia-Song;WAN Kun;ZHENG Xu-Dong;LI Rong-Hui(Jiangsu Education Informatization Engineering Technology Research Center,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou,Jiangsu,China 221000;Education Informatization Research Center,Shangrao Normal University,Shangrao,Jiangxi,China 334000;School of Education,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai,China 200030)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学江苏省教育信息化工程技术研究中心,江苏徐州221000 [2]上饶师范学院教育信息化研究中心,江西上饶334000 [3]上海师范大学教育学院,上海200030

出　　处：《现代教育技术》2025年第3期118-128,共11页Modern Educational Technology

基　　金：江苏省教育厅未来网络科研基金项目“教育政务数据开放风险识别与防控研究”(项目编号:FNSRFP-2021-YB-45);江西省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目“教育数字化促进乡村教育资源均衡配置的作用机理与对策研究”(项目编号:23ZXSKJD08)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：教育政务数据开放风险识别是实现数据要素价值,促进教育政务数据有效共享与合理利用的前提。为此,文章首先采用德尔菲法确定了教育政务数据开放风险的来源,分别为参与主客体风险、制度环境风险、技术平台风险和经济成本风险。然后,文章利用熵权法确定了各风险因素的比重,在此基础上构建了基于系统动力学的教育政务数据开放风险识别模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果表明:教育政务数据开放风险受技术平台的影响最大,技术提前介入可有效降低风险;制度环境风险在前中期较为显著,而参与主客体风险同期相对较弱;随着数据周期延长,数据本身的风险会显著下降。最后,文章基于以上发现提出了教育政务数据开放风险防控的具体建议,以期为教育科学决策和数据价值实现提供参考。The opening risk identification of data for education government affairs is the prerequisite for realizing the value of data elements and promoting the effective sharing and rational utilization of data for education government affairs.Therefore,this paper firstly adopted the Delphi method to determine the opening risk sources of data for education government affairs as the risks of participating subject and object,institutional environment,technology platform and economic cost.Then,the weights of the risk factors were determined by using the entropy weight method,and the opening risk identification model data for education government affairs based on system dynamics was constructed,and the simulation was carried out.The results showed that the opening risk of data for education government affairs was most affected by the technology platform,and technology intervention in advance can effectively reduce the risk;the institutional environment risk was more significant in the first and middle periods,while the risk of the participating subject and object was relatively weak in the same period;with the extension of the data cycle,the risk of the data itself will decrease significantly.Finally,based on the above findings,this paper put forward specific suggestions on the opening risk prevention and control of data for education government affairs,in order to provide references for educational scientific decision-making and data value realization.

关 键 词：教育政务数据 数据开放风险识别 系统动力学 模拟仿真 

分 类 号：G40-057[文化科学—教育学原理]