基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测环状镰孢的潜在适生区  

Prediction of the potential suitable areas for pine pitch canker pathogen Fusarium circinatum utilizing an optimized MaxEnt model

作　　者：王心 闫子怡 游崇娟[1] WANG Xin;YAN Ziyi;YOU Chongjuan(Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Forestry and Parks Bureau of Beijing Daxing District,Beijing 102600,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [2]北京市大兴区园林绿化局,北京102600

出　　处：《菌物学报》2025年第2期28-43,共16页Mycosystema

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFE0116200)。

摘　　要：松树脂溃疡病是发生在松树上的最危险的病害之一。为有效降低未来气候变化下其病原菌环状镰孢Fusarium circinatum传入中国并暴发流行的风险,本研究基于环状镰孢的实际分布数据,利用优化的MaxEnt模型筛选环境变量,预测了该病菌在当前及未来不同气候情景下在中国的潜在适生区,以及未来气候变化情景下的迁移路线。研究显示:平均温度日较差、等温性、气温季节性变动系数、最冷季度平均温度和年降水量为影响环状镰孢分布的关键环境变量。在当前气候条件下,环状镰孢在我国的总适生区面积为3.09×10^(6)km^(2),占我国陆地总面积的32.23%,其在我国的适生区主要分布在华中、华东以及华南等亚热带气候区。未来气候条件下(低强迫情景SSP126和高强迫情景SSP585),该病菌在我国适生区面积将逐渐增加,其适生区质心将向北迁移。Pine pitch canker,caused by Fusarium circinatum,is one of the most important diseases of Pinus species.In order to reduce the risks associated with the potential introduction and subsequent epidemic of this quarantine pathogen under climate change,the optimized Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of F.circinatum in China,and the centroid movement track was also analyzed.The results revealed that the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of F.circinatum were mean diurnal temperature range,isothermality,temperature seasonality,mean temperature of coldest quarter,and annual precipitation.Under current climate conditions,the suitable distribution area of F.circinatum in China was approximately 3.09×10^(6)square kilometers,constituting 32.23%of the nation's land area.The suitable distribution area was primarily situated in the central,eastern,and southern regions of the country,within subtropical climate zones.Under future climate scenarios,specifically the low-forcing Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126(SSP126)and the high-forcing SSP585,the suitable area for the pathogen in China is expected to be expanded,with the geographic centroid of the suitable habitat shifting northward.

关 键 词：气候变化 环状镰孢 MaxEnt模型 适生区 质心 

分 类 号：S763.7[农业科学—森林保护学]