东北三省黑土地碳排放时序特征及减排空间分析  

Temporal characterization of carbon emissions and spatial analysis of emission reduction of black soil in Northeast China

作　　者：腾云 孙铭遥 孙雨薇 徐卉 黄润 闫甜磊 芦梓健 TENG Yun;SUN Mingyao;SUN Yuwei;XU Hui;HUANG Run;YAN Tianlei;LU Zijian(College of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Trinity Western University,School of Management,Langley V2Y 1Y1,Canada)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学工程学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]西三一大学管理学院,加拿大兰利V2Y1Y1

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2025年第3期232-244,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目资助(23JYA045)。

摘　　要：为测算东北三省黑土地碳排放量及预测减量空间,选择化肥、农药、农膜、翻耕、灌溉及农用柴油6个主要碳源,结合2000—2021年面板数据,运用碳排放系数法测算2000—2021年碳排放量,并采用BP神经网络模型预测2022—2030年碳排放量,并设定基准情景和低碳情景进行定量分析。结果表明:1)2000—2021年碳排放总量变化呈现“波动上升-下降”趋势。其中,第1阶段为2000—2015年波动上升阶段;第2阶段为2016—2021年下降阶段。2)2022—2030年农业碳排放量显示其呈“先上升后下降”趋势,2030年黑土地碳排放预测结果为1605.00万t,低碳情景下预测结果697.12万t,减量空间最大为907.88万t,10年累计减排量可达4267.41万t,累计碳排放强度潜力空间为1.49 t/hm^(2)。3)在2000—2021年东北黑土地碳排放组成中,化肥是主要排放源,占排放总量的73.78%;翻耕和灌溉所占比例较小,但两者碳排放量持续增加。综上,东北三省黑土地碳排放量已达峰值,未来仍存在较大减量空间,政府应持续加大降碳减排力度,加速推进本地区的碳中和目标。To measure the carbon emissions of black soil in the three northeastern provinces and predict the space for its reduction,six major carbon sources,fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,tillage,irrigation and agricultural diesel,were selected.Combined with the panel data of 2000⁃2021,the carbon emission coefficient method was applied to measure the carbon emission.The BP neural network model was used to predict the carbon emission from 2022⁃2030,and the baseline scenario and low carbon scenarios were set for quantitative analysis.The baseline scenario and low carbon scenario were set for quantitative analysis.The results show that:1)The total carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021 show a“fluctuating upward declining”trend,of which the first stage is the fluctuating upward stage from 2000 to 2015,and the second stage is the declining stage from 2016 to 2021.2)The agricultural carbon emissions from 2022 to 2030 show a“first upward and thendeclining”trend.3)The agricultural carbon emissions from 2022 to 2030 display“first increased and then decreased”trend.The predicted carbon emission from black soil in 2030 is 16.05 million tons,and the predicted carbon emission under the low-carbon scenario is 6.9712 million tons.The largest reduction space is of 9.0788 million tons,the cumulative emission reduction in 10 years is 42.6741 million tons,and the cumulative carbon emission intensity potential space is 1.49 t/hm^(2).4)Among the six major carbon emission sources of black soil in Northeast China from 2000 to 2021,fertilizer is the main emission source,accounting for 73.78%of the total emission,and the carbon emission from tillage and irrigation,though small,has kept increasing.Overall,the carbon emissions from black soil in the three northeastern provinces have reached their peak,and there is still large reduction space in the future.The government should continue to reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the goal of carbon neutrality.

关 键 词：东北黑土地 碳排放 碳减排 “双碳”目标 BP神经网络模型 

分 类 号：G353.11[文化科学—情报学] S-9[农业科学]