风险决策中社会距离影响群体成员有关风险的先验信念  

The Influence of Social Distance on Group Members'Prior Beliefs About Risk in Risky Decision-Making

作　　者：钟旭东 王佳雯 王芳 ZHONG Xudong;WANG Jiawen;WANG Fang(School of Business and Management,Shanghai International Studies University,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际工商管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《心理技术与应用》2025年第3期166-176,共11页Psychology(Techniques and Applications)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72171152);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2023TD003)。

摘　　要：为深入探究群体决策中个体风险决策的变化及其认知基础,进而优化群体决策效能,采用仿真气球冒险任务,通过对比不同决策模式(个体决策、共同决策、轮流决策)及不同社会距离群组条件下个体的连续风险决策,并利用强化学习的贝叶斯模型构建决策过程模型。结果显示,相较于个人决策,在双人决策时,个体表现出更高的冒险性。然而,贝叶斯模型拟合揭示,这并非是个体的风险偏好提升,而是个体对气球不会破裂的先验信念有所增强,并且在近社会距离组中,这种先验信念的增加更为显著。To deeply explore the variations in individual risk-taking behavior within group decisions and their cognitive foundations,and subsequently optimize group decision-making effectiveness,this study employs the Balloon Analogue Risk Task(BART).It compares individuals'sequential risk decisions across different decision-making modes(individual decision-making,joint decision-making,and alternating decision-making)and under varying social distance group conditions.Furthermore,a Bayesian model of reinforcement learning is utilized to construct a model of the decision-making process.The research reveals that,when using traditional behavioral indicators(average number of balloon pumps),compared to individual decision-making,individuals exhibit more risky behavior when decision-making involves two people.However,Bayesian model fitting reveals that this is not due to an increase in individual risk preference but rather an enhancement in their prior belief that the balloon will not burst.Moreover,this increase in prior belief is more pronounced in groups with close social distances.

关 键 词：风险决策 群体决策 社会距离 贝叶斯模型 仿真气球冒险任务 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]