建成环境与行人交通事故非线性关系和阈值效应研究——以重庆市渝中区为例  

Research on the nonlinear relationship and threshold effects between the built environment and pedestrian traffic accidents:A case study of Yuzhong District,Chongqing

作　　者：陈春[1] 刘双齐 周书宏 匡新晖 CHEN Chun;LIU Shuangqi;ZHOU Shuhong;KUANG Xinhui

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学生态人居与绿色交通研究中心 [2]重庆交通大学交通运输学院

出　　处：《西部人居环境学刊》2025年第1期65-72,共8页Journal of Human Settlements in West China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071218)。

摘　　要：建成环境与行人交通事故的关系是城市规划和交通管理领域的重要研究议题。然而,现有研究多局限于线性关系的探讨,缺乏对非线性影响及阈值效应的深入分析,难以支撑精细化规划与治理实践。为此,本文以重庆市渝中区为例,整合行人交通事故数据、路网数据、土地利用数据、手机信令数据、POI数据等多源空间大数据,运用梯度提升决策树模型(GBDT),从道路设施、土地利用、设施临近性、空间结构、社会经济5个维度系统解析建成环境要素对行人交通事故频率的非线性关系和阈值效应。研究发现:第一,各建成环境要素与行人交通事故存在非线性关系和阈值效应;第二,控制度对行人交通事故的相对重要性最高,其次是人口密度、路网密度和土地利用混合度。研究结论为精细化建成环境规划与交通治理提供了科学依据,对提升行人步行安全具有重要的实践指导意义。Pedestrians are widely recognized as the most vulnerable group among road users and are more likely to be involved in severe traffic accidents.Therefore,creating a safer environment for pedestrians is crucial for protecting residents and promoting high-quality urban development.Traditionally,the factors influencing pedestrian traffic accidents have been analyzed from a micro perspective,focusing primarily on intersections and crosswalks.However,the effects of medium-and macro-level built environment factors,such as urban spatial structure,land use,and density,on pedestrian traffic accidents have not been comprehensively and systematically addressed.Recently,scholars in the fields of urban planning and geography have begun to explore the relationship between the built environment and pedestrian traffic accidents,often employing statistical models such as negative binomial regression and logistic regression.In recent years,machine learning methods have been increasingly applied to the studies of walking behavior.These studies have revealed a nonlinear relationship between the built environment and walking activities,and since pedestrian traffic safety is closely related to walking behavior,it is likely that similar nonlinear and threshold effects exist between built environment factors and pedestrian traffic safety.Investigating these nonlinear relationships and threshold effects challenges the traditional assumption of a linear connection between the built environment and pedestrian traffic accidents.It also provides valuable insights into the local characteristics of how built environment variables influence pedestrian traffic accidents,particularly from the perspective of marginal effects.In practical applications,empirical findings on nonlinear and threshold effects,especially regarding the relative importance and threshold ranges of various built environment elements,can offer more refined strategies and effective solutions for traffic management and urban planning.Yuzhong District in Chongqing,located at the

关 键 词：建成环境 行人安全 交通安全 非线性 机器学习 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]