美国制裁、双轮驱动与中国关键核心技术突破——基于双重机器学习的因果推断  

U.S.Sanctions,Two-Wheel Drive and China's Key Core Technology Breakthrough——Causal Inference Based on Dual Machine Learning

作　　者：曹雨暄 岳立[1] 潘均柏 Cao Yuxuan;Yue Li;Pan Junbai(School of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2025年第3期164-176,共13页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：甘肃省科技厅软科学专项自选项目“新质生产力催生背景下新型算力基础设施建设对甘肃省工业产业链现代化的影响研究”(24JRZA036);甘肃省科技厅软科学博士项目“新质生产力赋能甘肃省可持续发展的核心要素、运行机理与逻辑框架”(24JRRA493)。

摘　　要：本文以美国对中国展开的芯片制裁作为外部冲击,采用2015—2021年中国A股上市公司企业的面板数据,通过理论推导并结合双重机器学习模型,实证检验美国制裁对中国芯片企业关键核心技术突破的影响,探究关键核心技术突破的阶段性特征及影响差异,依托使命驱动理论和愿景驱动理论,借助机器学习因果效应估计方法检验政府和企业双元视角下的驱动机制。主要结论如下:①美国制裁适得其反,引发中国芯片企业创新,该创新效应在国有、大规模和知识产权高保护区企业的作用更强;②关键核心技术突破是一个从基础研究阶段到技术突破阶段再到价值体现阶段的过程,美国制裁对三阶段的影响随阶段难度递增而依次减弱;③政府使命驱动和企业愿景驱动是抵御美国制裁并达成创新激励的重要作用渠道,分阶段来看,双轮驱动机制对基础研究和技术突破阶段的创新效应显著,跨越研发期的价值体现阶段则需要找寻其他机制发挥激励持续性。This paper takes the U.S.sanctions on China's chip industry as the external impact,adopts the panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2021,empirically examines the impact of the U.S.sanctions on the breakthrough of key core technologies of China's chip enterprises through theoretical derivation combined with double machine learning model,and at the same time,probes into the stage characteristics of the breakthrough of key core technologies and the differences in the stage effects of the impact.Relying on the mission-driven theory and vision-driven theory,the study further examines the driving mechanism under the dual perspective of government and enterprises with the help of machine learning causal effect estimation method.The main conclusions of the study are as follows.First,the U.S.sanctions backfired,triggering Chinese chip firms to innovate.The innovation effect is stronger in state-owned,large-scale and IPR-protected firms.Second,the key core technology breakthrough is a process from the basic research stage to the technological breakthrough stage to the value embodiment stage,the impact of the U.S.sanctions on the three stages of the stage with the increasing difficulty of the stage in order to weaken.Third,government mission-driven and enterprise vision-driven are important channels for resisting U.S.sanctions and reaching innovation incentives.In terms of stages,the two-wheel drive mechanism has a significant effect on innovation in the basic research and technological breakthrough stages,while for the value embodiment stage across the R&D period,it is necessary to find other mechanisms for incentive continuity.

关 键 词：关键核心技术突破 美国技术制裁 双轮驱动 双重机器学习 

分 类 号：F279.23[经济管理—企业管理] F062.4[经济管理—国民经济]