高考语文、数学、英语成绩对大学成绩的预测效度比较  

Comparison of the Predictive Validity of College Entrance Examination Performance of Chinese,Math and English for University Academic Performance

作　　者：郭庆科 谢立慧 谢翠雪 Guo Qingke;Xie Lihui;Xie Cuixue(Faculty of Education,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin,Guangxi,541001;Academic Affairs Office,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin,Guangxi,541001)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学教育学部,广西桂林541001 [2]广西师范大学教务处,广西桂林541001

出　　处：《考试研究》2025年第2期25-31,共7页Examinations Research

基　　金：教育部教育考试院“十四五”规划支撑专项课题“新高考改革中统考与选考科目的统计测量分析指标研究”(NEEA2021045)资助。

摘　　要：效度是高考公平性的基础,也是其存在的法理依据。大学学习成绩是高考的重要效度标准。研究分析2068名大学生的高考成绩对其大学成绩的预测效度。结果发现,高考三大主科均有一定预测效度。英语的效度最好(与专业课均分、毕业论文成绩及12门大学课程成绩正相关,平均相关系数为0.115),语文次之(与专业课均分、毕业论文成绩及8门大学课程成绩正相关,平均相关系数为0.097),数学最差(与7门大学课程成绩正相关,平均相关系数为0.106)。英语和语文成绩能较好地预测专业课成绩和以政治思想课为代表的通识课成绩。英语对毕业论文成绩的影响很可能是通过提高专业课成绩而实现,语文则直接影响毕业论文成绩,数学成绩不能预测专业课和毕业论文成绩。Validity is the basis for the fairness of the National College Entrance Examination(Gaokao)and the jurisprudential basis for its existence.University academic performance is an important criterion for assessing the validity of Gaokao scores.This study analyzes the predictive validity of Gaokao scores for the university academic performance of 2068 college students.The results showed that all three main subjects of Gaokao had predictive validity.English demonstrates the best predictive validity(positively correlated with the average score of major courses,thesis grades,and grades of 12 university courses,with an average correlation coefficient of 0.115),Chinese the next best(positively correlated with the average score of major courses,thesis grades,and grades of eight university courses,with an average correlation coefficient of 0.097),and math the worst(positively correlated with grades of seven university courses,with an average correlation coefficient of 0.106).English and Chinese can effectively predict the mean grades of major subjects and the grades of general education courses represented by political and ideological courses.The effect of English on thesis grades is likely to be realized by improving grades in major courses.Chinese,on the other hand,has a direct impact on thesis grades.Mathematics does not predict major and thesis grades.

关 键 词：高考成绩 大学成绩 预测效度 调节的中介效应 

分 类 号：G424.74[文化科学—课程与教学论]