基于STIRPAT模型的江西省能源消费碳排放研究  

Research on Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption in Jiangxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：苏海报 陈兴鹃 夏玲君 余焰文 陈娇娇 霍子旭 SU Haibao;CHEN Xingjuan;XIA Lingjun;YU Yanwen;CHEN Jiaojiao;HUO Zixu(Shangrao Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi,Shangrao 334000,Jiangxi China;Jiangxi Ecological Meteorology Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Fuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi,Fuzhou 344000,Jiangxi China;Guangfeng Meteorological Bureau of Shangrao in Jiangxi,Shangrao 334600,Jiangxi China)

机构地区：[1]江西省上饶市气象局,江西上饶334000 [2]江西省生态气象中心,南昌330096 [3]江西省抚州市气象局,江西抚州344000 [4]江西省上饶市广丰区气象局,江西上饶334600

出　　处：《河南科学》2025年第3期389-397,共9页Henan Science

基　　金：江西省气象局重点项目(JX2023Z03,JX2021Z06);江西省上饶市气象局科研项目(SR202302);江西省抚州市科技局科研项目(FZFZJZZX2202)。

摘　　要：基于统计年鉴和相关文献资料,分析了1991—2020年江西省能源消费碳排放的变化特征,并通过STIRPAT模型预测分析了江西省未来能源消费碳排放在不同情景模式下的变化情况。结果表明:①1991—2020年江西省能源消费碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,且上升趋势明显;②根据碳排放量大小将江西省11个地市分为三个级别:碳排放量在2500万t及以上的高碳排放地市(南昌市、九江市、宜春市)、碳排放量为[1500,2500)万t的中碳排放地市(新余市、赣州市、萍乡市、上饶市)、碳排放量在1500万t以下的低碳排放地市(吉安市、抚州市、景德镇市、鹰潭市);③通过对比预测的8种情景模式下江西省2021—2035年能源消费碳排放量发现,高模式、高中模式、高低模式、中模式和中低模式下江西省能源消费碳排放量均未于2030年之前达到峰值,而中高模式、低模式和低中模式下江西省能源消费碳排放量均于2030年达到峰值。鉴于目前江西省经济发展水平相对较落后,而中高发展模式可以兼顾碳排放峰值目标与经济发展水平,故择其作为江西省发展的最优模式。Based on the statistical yearbooks and relevant literatures,this paper analyzed the change characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangxi Province from 1991 to 2020,and the STIRPAT model was used to predict and analyze the future changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangxi Province under different scenario modes.The results showed that:①From 1991 to 2020,the overall carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangxi Province showed an increasing trend,and the increasing trend was significant;②According to the size of carbon emissions,the 11 cities in Jiangxi Province were divided into three levels:high-carbon emission cities(Nanchang,Jiujiang,Yichun)with carbon emissions of 25 million tons or more,medium-carbon emission cities(Xinyu,Ganzhou,Pingxiang,Shangrao)with carbon emissions of[15,25)million tons,and lowcarbon emission cities(Ji’an,Fuzhou,Jingdezhen,Yingtan)with carbon emissions below 15 million tons.③By comparing the predicted carbon emissions of energy consumption in Jiangxi Province from 2021 to 2035 under eight scenario modes,it was found that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangxi Province under the high mode,high-medium mode,high-low mode,medium mode and medium-low mode had not reached the peak before 2030,while the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangxi Province under the medium-high mode,low mode and low-medium mode would reach the peak in 2030.Given that the economic development level of Jiangxi Province is relatively backward at present,and the medium-high development model can take into account the peak carbon emission target and the level of economic development,so it is chosen as the optimal development model for Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：江西省 能源消费 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 峰值预测 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]