广西能源生产与消费结构分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Energy Production and Consumption Structure in Guangxi

作　　者：莫定源 李金耀 MO Ding-yuan;LI Jin-yao(School of Mathematical Sciences and Statistics,Baise University,Baise 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]百色学院数理科学与统计学院,广西百色533000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2025年第2期73-89,共17页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学研究课题(23FYJ066)。

摘　　要：深度挖掘能源生产与能源消费构成要素之间的关系,客观准确预测能源生产与能源消费,可以为政府优化能源生产与消费结构、制定能源发展政策提供重要参考.以广西2010-2022年能源生产与能源消费为研究对象,运用熵权法、灰色关联分析法探究能源生产与能源消费构成要素的离散程度、灰色关联程度;运用GM(1,1)模型、基于缓冲算子的改进GM(1,1)模型预测广西能源生产与能源消费总量的未来发展趋势.结果表明广西能源生产与消费结构有待进一步优化,基于缓冲算子的改进GM(1,1)模型能有效提高模型精度.Deeply explore the relationship between the constituent elements of energy production and energy consumption,objectively and accurately predict energy production and energy consumption,it can provide important references for the government to optimize the structure of energy production and consumption and formulate energy development policies.This article takes energy production and consumption in Guangxi from 2010 to 2022 as the research object,and use entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis method to explore the degree of dispersion and grey correlation of the constituent elements of energy production and consumption;Using GM(1,1)model and improved GM(1,1)model based on buffer operator to predict the future development trend of energy production and energy consumption in Guangxi.The results indicate that the energy production and consumption structure in Guangxi needs further optimization,and the improved GM(1,1)model based on buffer operator can effectively improve the model accuracy.

关 键 词：能源生产 能源消费 熵权法 GM(1 1)模型 缓冲算子 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]