基于文本挖掘和云模型的虚拟电厂交易风险评估研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of Virtual Power Plant Transaction Based on Text Mining and Cloud Models

作　　者：刘吉成[1] 宋亚楠 LIU Jicheng;SONG Yanan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2025年第3期1089-1097,I0069,I0070,共11页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71771085)。

摘　　要：虚拟电厂聚合分布式能源作为第三方主体参与市场,其交易过程存有多种不确定性风险因素,准确识别并有效评估其交易风险尤为重要。该文首先基于文本挖掘技术辨识风险因素,并使用失效模式与影响分析法确定关键风险因素,进而设计风险评估指标体系。其次,结合博弈论思想,对关键风险因素主客观组合赋权。再次,构建风险评估的二维云模型以描述风险发生概率的随机性和风险产生后果的模糊性问题。最后,采用所提评估方法计算多场景虚拟电厂参与市场交易情况的总体风险水平并排序,且与优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)、秩和比综合评价法(rank sum ratio,RSR)及折衷排序方法(multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution,VIKOR)对比分析,验证了模型及方法的可行性和有效性。所做研究为VPP交易管理和风险防范提供了有益的参考,具有工程应用价值。Virtual power plants aggregate distributed energy resources and participate in the market as third-party subjects.There are various uncertainties and risk factors.It is particularly important to identify and effectively assess their trading risks accurately.Firstly,the paper identifies risk factors based on text mining technology,uses failure mode and impact analysis to determine key factors,and then designs a risk assessment index system.Secondly,the subjective and objective combination of key risk factors is weighted by combining game theory.Then,a two-dimensional cloud model for risk assessment is constructed to describe the randomness of risk occurrence probability and the ambiguity of risk consequences.Finally,the proposed evaluation method calculates and ranks the overall risk level of multi-scenario virtual power plants participating in market transactions.It is also compared with technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS),rank sum ratio(RSR),and multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution(VIKOR)methods to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.The research provided a useful reference for VPP transaction management and risk prevention.It has engineering application value.

关 键 词：虚拟电厂交易 风险评估 文本挖掘 二维云模型 风险防范 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]