低碳转型下的中国能源市场风险联动特征研究  

Research on the Risk Linkage Characteristics of China's Energy Market Under the Low-Carbon Transition

作　　者：盖书文 刘启航 李思博 GAI Shuwen;LIU Qihang;LI Sibo(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Sino-Danish College,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学中丹学院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2025年第2期357-375,共19页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

摘　　要：随着页岩油革命的兴起以及中国能源结构低碳转型进程的加快,清洁能源在中国能源市场中的作用愈发显著.及时发现中国主要能源市场间的风险联动特征及其演变规律,对于中国能源市场的可持续发展具有重要的现实价值.基于此,文章利用带有结构变点的协整检验方法以及DCC-GARCH-SJC-Copula的研究框架从不同视角对中国主要的六大类细分能源市场进行了详细分析.研究表明,在中国的能源系统中普遍存在着结构突变、动态调整以及非对称性的尾部相依结构等风险特征.OPEC限产、天然气定价改革、可再生能源补贴政策调整等重要宏观事件的发生对中国能源系统的长期联动关系的结构性调整具有显著影响.从测算结果来看,结构变点前后各能源市场呈现出了差异性的风险特征.其中,风能太阳能市场间具有最强的风险联动关系,天然气煤炭市场最弱.油气市场间近年来出现了明显的“脱钩”现象.相对于不可再生能源市场,可再生能源市场表现出了更为显著的风险特征.此外值得注意的是,受政府管制以及定价机制等因素的影响,在极端事件发生的情境下各能源市场价格间同时“暴跌”的风险要显著大于其同时“暴涨”的风险.据此,文章提出了系列政策建议,以期为中国能源体系的定价改革提供重要参考.With the rise of shale oil industry and the acceleration of low-carbon transformation process of China's energy structure,the role of clean energy in China's energy market has become increasingly significant.The timely discovery of the risk linkage characteristics and evolution rules of China's major energy markets has important practical value for the sustainable development of China's energy system.Based on this,this paper uses the co-integration test method with structural change points and the research framework of DCC-GARCH-SJC-Copula to conduct a detailed analysis of China's six major segmented energy markets from different perspectives.The research results show that the risk characteristics of structural mutations,dynamic adjustments,and asymmetric tail-dependent structures are common in China's energy system.The occurrence of major macro events such as OPEC production restriction,natural gas pricing reform,and renewable energy subsidy policy adjustments have significantly affected the structural changes in the long-term linkage relationship of China's energy system.According to the calculation results,various energy markets show different risk characteristics before and after the structural change point.Among them,the wind-solar market has the strongest risk linkage correlation,while the natural gas-coal market is the weakest.The crude oil and natural gas markets have“decoupled”significantly in recent years.Compared with the non-renewable energy market,the renewable energy market shows more significant risk characteristics.In addition,it is worth noting that under the influence of government regulation,pricing mechanism and other factors,the risk of simultaneous“slumping”of energy market prices in the context of extreme events is significantly greater than the risk of simultaneous“surging”.Based on this,this paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions with a view to providing important reference for the pricing reform of China's energy system.

关 键 词：能源市场改革 能源结构 风险特征 DCC-GARCH SJC-Copula 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]