安徽省城市数字经济发展的地区差异、动态演进与收敛性研究  

Regional Differences,Dynamic Evolution and Convergence of Urban Digital Economy Development in Anhui Province

作　　者：丁仕潮 桂代运 魏引娣 DING Shichao;GUI Daiyun;WEI Yindi

机构地区：[1]安庆师范大学经济与管理学院,安徽安庆246133 [2]安庆师范大学图书馆,安徽安庆246133

出　　处：《淮南师范学院学报》2025年第1期57-69,共13页Journal of Huainan Normal University

基　　金：安徽省高校科研项目(2022AH051008、2024AH052748);安徽省教育厅高校中青年教师培养行动项目(YQZD2023056)。

摘　　要：文章以安徽省16个地级市为样本,将其划分为三大地区,利用熵值法对其2012-2021年数字经济发展水平进行测度,并综合运用Kernel密度估计、Markov链模型、σ收敛、β收敛模型及障碍度模型对其地区差异、动态演进以及收敛性进行分析。结果表明:(1)样本期间安徽省数字经济发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,其中皖中地区水平最高,增速也最快,皖中、皖南、皖北梯度递减格局明显。(2)城市间绝对差异有所增大,且表现出极化现象。(3)各市状态等级锁定概率较大,具有一定的“马太效应”;随着时间的推移,各等级状态之间的转移概率增加,与高等级状态省份相邻时,能够促进自身向上转移概率,反之则抑制。(4)安徽省数字经济发展不存在σ收敛,但具有β收敛特征,全省条件收敛速度为14.93%,半程收敛周期为4.64年,皖北收敛速度最快。(5)产业数字化成为安徽省数字经济发展最主要的障碍因素,数字人力资本、数字产业化尽管贡献度较低,障碍度则呈增加趋势。This paper takes 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui province as samples and divides them into three regions.The entropy method is used to measure the development level of digital economy from 2012 to 2021,and the regional differences,dynamic evolution and convergence are analyzed with Kernel density estimation,Markov chain,o convergence,βconvergence model and obstacle degree model.The results show that:(1)The development level of digital economy in Anhui Province showed an overall upward trend during the sample period,in which central Anhui Province had the highest level and the fastest growth rate,and the gradient decline pattern was obvious in central Anhui Province,southern Anhui Province and northern Anhui Province;(2)The absolute difference between cities increased and showed polarization;(3)The locking probability of each city state level is large,which has a certain"Matthew effect";With the passage of time,the transfer probability of each grade state increases.When the province is adjacent to the high grade state,it can promote its upward transfer probability,and vice versa,it can inhibit it.(4)The development of digital economy in Anhui province does not have o convergence,but hasβconvergence characteristics,the conditional convergence rate of the whole province is 14.93%,the half convergence period is 4.64 years,and the convergence speed is the fastest in northern Anhui province;(5)Industrial digitalization has become the main obstacle to the development of digital economy in Anhui Province.Although the contribution of digital human capital and digital industrialization is relatively low,the obstacle degree shows an increasing trend.

关 键 词：数字经济 动态演进 MARKOV链 收敛性 障碍因子 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]