中国县域减污降碳协同增效的时空演变及影响因素  

The spatiotemporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in Chinese counties

作　　者：邢会[1] 霍晓谦 XING Hui;HUO Xiao-qian(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300130

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第3期1657-1673,共17页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72304085);河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(ZD202407)。

摘　　要：基于中国2003~2022年2383个区县的面板数据,首先采用复合系统协同度模型和超效率SBM-DEA模型测度减污降碳协同增效水平,之后利用核密度估计、空间自相关分析和标准差椭圆探究县域减污降碳协同增效的时空演变特征,最后结合XGBoost算法和SHAP值解释算法识别减污降碳协同增效的主要影响因素.结果表明:中国县域减污降碳协同增效水平总体上呈提升趋势,特别是2020年后提升幅度相对较大;县域减污降碳协同增效呈现“东高西低”的空间格局,并具有显著的空间正相关性;县域减污降碳协同增效的分布重心总体向东南方向迁移,呈现南北方向向心集聚、东西方向空间发散的趋势;能源强度是减污降碳协同增效的主要影响因素,并对减污降碳协同增效产生负向影响.技术创新和产业结构整体上推动减污降碳协同增效,经济发展、人口密度和金融发展对减污降碳协同增效的影响呈现复杂非线性特征;相较于东部地区,能源强度对中西部地区减污降碳协同增效的影响更为显著.Based on the panel data of 2383 counties in China from 2003 to 2022,the composite system synergy model and super-efficient SBM-DEA model were initially employed to quantify the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in counties were explored by kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and standard deviation ellipse.Ultimately,the XGBoost algorithm and SHAP value interpretation algorithm were combined to identify the main influencing factors of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions.The results show that.the level of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in Chinese counties has been gradually rising,with a marked acceleration observed after 2020.The synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions exhibits a “high in the east,low in the west” pattern,accompanied by a significant spatial positive correlation.The distribution center of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in counties generally migrates to the southeast,reflecting a north-south centripetal trend and an east-west spatial divergence.Energy intensity is the main influencing factor of synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions,and has a negative impact on the synergistic reduction.Technological innovation and industrial structure generally promote the synergistic reduction.The impact of economic development,population density and financial development on the synergistic reduction shows complex nonlinear characteristics.Compared with the eastern region,the impact of energy intensity on the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in the central and western regions is more significant.

关 键 词：县域 减污降碳 协同增效 时空演变 XGBoost 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]